Poker · resolved market

Will Rob 'Boston Rob' Mariano win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b97dd6bfed24b91074017f22e1e749bcaa61a5b727153673f4c717f9767916

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,466,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,466,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Poker
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf308…dd2ebacked Yes	0c	1,083,409$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,083.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb634…5da7backed Yes	0c	1,056,183$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8993…4854backed Yes	0c	65,687$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b70…af09backed Yes	0c	50,457$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b86…a5c3backed Yes	0c	45,791$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x963f…ab75backed Yes	0c	45,791$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebd7…c4a2backed Yes	0c	45,791$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa982…725dbacked Yes	0c	45,791$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x154b…0017backed Yes	0c	43,791$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e70…b7e3backed Yes	0c	43,791$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceb9…ea2dbacked Yes	0c	42,791$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…104bbacked Yes	0c	42,791$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes	0c	32,254$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	48	0%0 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6399…ec29backed Yes	0c	25,221$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0e…5a04backed Yes	0c	25,221$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0400…916fbacked Yes	0c	25,221$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c0…d397backed Yes	0c	25,207$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e13…fb6cbacked Yes	0c	25,207$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd00b…6da4backed Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54f6…9780backed Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf689…3436backed Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88f7…4cc9backed Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac68…4cb4backed Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4647…17e3backed Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x611e…1deebacked Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b63…0f4dbacked Yes	0c	22,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbee1…0016backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x981d…81d4backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab78…3c42backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa23…01d0backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00a2…1e83backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16c9…e074backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…e656backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8e…e352backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…6df5backed Yes	0c	21,896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a54…788ebacked Yes	0c	20,896$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb5…cdebbacked Yes	0c	20,896$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…b272backed Yes	0c	18,896$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc37b…0360backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes	0c	13,026$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes	0c	12,510$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	0%0 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90fc…064fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5a…4a3dbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes	1c	1,640$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rob 'Boston Rob' Mariano win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event