Us Politics · resolved market
Mike Johnson out as Speaker before inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5245e135d810034d91cfa8171e68a8af45ca4727505a9f8ae4b7359f473bcef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $359,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $359,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 37,763$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 21,280$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 20c | 17,818$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,541.79 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 21c | 15,033$3,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.72 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 68c | 11,138$7,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,587.44 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 30c | 10,874$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.98 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 10,447$2,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,526.28 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 25c | 6,685$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.34 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 66c | 6,172$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.92 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 70c | 5,200$3,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 1c | 4,841$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 15c | 4,414$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.27 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 1c | 3,483$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…48c8backed No | 66c | 3,028$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 68c | 2,945$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.83 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 12c | 2,821$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…777bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,807$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 2,434$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 67c | 2,238$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.08 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 2c | 2,001$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 24c | 1,894$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 25c | 1,860$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.96 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,732$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.14 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,612$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…0d20backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 12c | 1,153$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 34c | 1,080$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…d4a0backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…885bbacked No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2927…c363backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…c89dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…ffc5backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed No | 56c | 919.11$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.06 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 36c | 729.25$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.53 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 76c | 724.04$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…da85backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 76c | 635.96$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 634.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 76c | 565.33$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.43 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 28c | 554.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea9…e97ebacked Yes | 21c | 485.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 18c | 456.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 454.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 30c | 441.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed No | 68c | 438.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.35 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 6c | 425$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 24c | 408.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…d1d8backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…a2a8backed No | 67c | 379.24$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 19c | 334$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 62c | 328.68$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked No | 68c | 300$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed No | 73c | 273.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe376…af39backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 237.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 21c | 235.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 32c | 231.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked Yes | 26c | 228$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe184…864cbacked No | 67c | 227.56$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 11c | 210.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c43…cbaebacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…e086backed Yes | 25c | 189.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9049…1c02backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 16c | 159.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…f196backed Yes | 34c | 149.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked Yes | 29c | 148.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 25c | 148.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 66c | 147$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…a4e5backed No | 75c | 146.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 34c | 141.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 13c | 140.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…dd0cbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 67c | 135.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 17c | 123.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 15c | 111.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 70c | 111.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 109.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…3883backed Yes | 36c | 109.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…b146backed No | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…bf37backed No | 66c | 101.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 98.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 69c | 93.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…56e8backed Yes | 36c | 93.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…65e6backed No | 67c | 87.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.