Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcddb4f52babca280f8e5fc4b9146f2520f0bfb88e134ff9ac8d52ea674185d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,632,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,779,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,632,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 389 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354f…03ebbacked No | 71c | 54,213$38,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,721.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…0932backed Yes | 29c | 54,213$15,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,721.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 50,204$37,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,953.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…6e18backed Yes | 18c | 47,785$8,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,618.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 31c | 40,802$12,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,821.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes | 25c | 36,948$9,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,085.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 74c | 22,832$16,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,876 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78dc…b46dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,688$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…42dcbacked Yes | 0c | 21,713$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 10c | 19,862$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.56 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 73c | 18,400$13,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,001.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed No | 72c | 16,068$11,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,543.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Yes | 35c | 15,911$5,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,637.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…4cebbacked Yes | 35c | 15,346$5,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,382.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…52e2backed Yes | 0c | 13,928$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaac…f45bbacked Yes | 2c | 13,191$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 12,152$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.38 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…4bbdbacked Yes | 11c | 12,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 71c | 11,951$8,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,454.08 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…61c5backed Yes | 6c | 11,183$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 10,348$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…072fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,331$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…5997backed Yes | 1c | 10,302$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 17c | 10,214$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,117$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…53e1backed Yes | 1c | 9,955$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,613$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 9c | 9,214$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.98 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 9,100$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 27c | 9,000$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5f…d929backed Yes | 14c | 8,282$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 7,711$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.93 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 72c | 7,023$5,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 6,764$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.59 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 78c | 6,706$5,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 75c | 6,399$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 72c | 6,307$4,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…5798backed Yes | 29c | 5,928$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…f3e9backed Yes | 26c | 5,757$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 74c | 5,417$3,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…bd75backed Yes | 3c | 5,331$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…4643backed Yes | 0c | 5,250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 2c | 5,147$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 5,080$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 80c | 4,968$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.38 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…ac8fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,853$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…43dcbacked Yes | 4c | 4,620$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 24c | 4,543$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 5c | 4,286$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 30c | 4,140$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.78 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 19c | 4,088$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,000$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…858cbacked Yes | 19c | 3,922$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 63c | 3,776$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c9…e290backed Yes | 3c | 3,707$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…3c7abacked No | 80c | 3,601$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x620f…2389backed Yes | 29c | 3,470$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed Yes | 28c | 3,470$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…f3fbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,381$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c0…1634backed Yes | 0c | 3,380$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 74c | 3,250$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed Yes | 28c | 3,074$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.12 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 27c | 3,061$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.88 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 21c | 3,048$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.66 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…a81cbacked Yes | 25c | 3,016$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…36ddbacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…022dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…2e7cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,843$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes | 16c | 2,807$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,788$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 11c | 2,740$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…2041backed Yes | 0c | 2,700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…aeb5backed No | 73c | 2,687$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…a332backed Yes | 5c | 2,600$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1817…19eebacked Yes | 0c | 2,599$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d04…7a17backed Yes | 1c | 2,493$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 4c | 2,443$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 2,343$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 5c | 2,297$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 5c | 2,213$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 69c | 2,163$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 19c | 2,152$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…f733backed Yes | 10c | 2,083$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf3…97cdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,041$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9104…96dcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,010$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Yes | 3c | 1,991$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 1,968$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.08 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 79c | 1,914$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,892$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 13c | 1,877$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…ce3cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,819$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…49ffbacked No | 77c | 1,681$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 69c | 1,622$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,580$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a7…b927backed Yes | 1c | 1,564$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed No | 80c | 1,532$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…0256backed Yes | 4c | 1,509$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 75c | 1,500$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…1da9backed No | 70c | 1,500$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.