TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9d5b…022d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$768Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+56.2%+$432
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Switzerland before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$230
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Bangladesh before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$130
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$150
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$1,120
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+76.4%+$535.09
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+39.9%+$39.85
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$389.93
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$1,000
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$68.65
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,387Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$2,386.63
Starmer out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$920
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$325
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+141.8%+$1,035.22
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$316.67
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$85.82
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$992Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$1,074.67
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$945Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$555
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+147.6%+$277.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+35.4%+$156.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$510
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the England vs. India match end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$5,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford backed Canelo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$3,842Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,841.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.