TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$428,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$448,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $428,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa82b…5220backed No63c35,038$22,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,943.738035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes37c20,156$7,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,386.655131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c15,428$9,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,476.9154934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x519a…2ec7backed No62c14,116$8,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,388.374100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes29c9,844$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,816.3812133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No76c8,293$6,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.941553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes11c6,854$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.41435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…eb83backed Yes45c6,298$2,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,806.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes25c5,954$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.642040%8 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes49c5,939$2,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,928.88838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No48c5,902$2,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.3516744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes33c5,253$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.497238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes25c4,393$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.452334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed Yes38c4,096$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.171118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Yes64c3,936$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked No66c3,703$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.811926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.6wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-48.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked No60c3,544$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.561338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes10c3,543$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.442138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes33c3,510$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.56439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes50c3,393$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.731421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked Yes59c3,391$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.91850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+291.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes60c2,599$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.457625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes49c2,425$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.664250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes11c2,399$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.995315.1%8 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes3c2,349$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.626622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes27c2,302$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.1927828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed No45c2,234$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.261145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd863…4df2backed Yes34c2,230$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes46c2,020$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cf…75d1backed No74c2,012$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed No47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0601457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No69c1,987$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+52.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No70c1,857$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f7…d487backed No65c1,842$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked No48c1,815$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes66c1,729$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.781136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc803…fb86backed Yes6c1,669$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes21c1,600$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.365527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes44c1,586$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.251546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes31c1,467$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.141,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No80c1,464$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.952040%8 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-44.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked No39c1,451$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.57450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes10c1,448$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.785633.9%19 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78b3…f028backed No68c1,340$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.38475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+130.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes55c1,266$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes15c1,252$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.643718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes44c1,234$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.482634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Yes46c1,233$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes45c1,212$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.4523225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes61c1,179$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.52850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes59c1,158$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.947834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c1,146$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.321,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe461…9a34backed No63c1,120$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes63c1,098$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.572343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed Yes59c1,066$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x395d…cca7backed Yes9c1,064$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes27c1,023$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.634634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No58c1,018$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.983537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d0…4843backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d6…d57fbacked Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No45c910.32$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.773743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes14c900$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12618036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes57c869.29$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.183020%6 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes63c863.01$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.663132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed No39c828$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.64862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+92.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes13c827.18$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.882540%10 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No29c805.46$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.887345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed No60c805.03$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.68850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No33c800$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5355425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes32c781.05$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.997424.3%18 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No74c776.12$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.152055%11 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+70.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8499…42e5backed Yes40c758.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes33c750.5$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9112630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked No39c745.69$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No36c723.77$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.731936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+87%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes15c720$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991a…d81abacked Yes34c710.01$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes43c703.86$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6919043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No66c695.58$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd785…f5b9backed Yes12c691.67$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes28c668.95$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.371957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No80c625.28$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.082955.2%16 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6130…144abacked No48c621$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes28c606.57$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19be…f052backed Yes34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No62c600$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2313737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bf3…326bbacked Yes60c586.4$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc85a…8cd8backed Yes56c580.43$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.19825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No68c555.67$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.561546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No61c549.99$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.9915230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes38c549.98$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.793537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x825c…09d9backed Yes68c548.1$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No43c530.01$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.524413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes39c515.64$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.475653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes10c510.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No51c500$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.41136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5b…022dbacked Yes65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…047ebacked No37c499.99$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.