TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe34a…5e71

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 56 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2025, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Trump signs bill cutting Medicare before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Trump cut military spending?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$48
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+40.5%+$211.49
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$403.39
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$348.93
Will FBI send Pam Bondi the full Epstein files by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,302Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+28.9%+$376.2
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$969Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$969.14
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,516Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$2,515.85
Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$144.08
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+100%+$200
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$809Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$809.21
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-84.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$341.25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$502
Will Trump visit Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.88
Will Zelensky wear suit next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.5
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+41.6%+$176.11
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$858Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$857.55
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$9,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,258.6
Will the US sanction Russia before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.12
Trump admin announces resumption of military aid to Ukraine in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.28
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+66.6%+$321.68
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$212.33
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,743Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,742.95
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$255.98
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$337.03
Trump tariffs on Canada in effect by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+63.9%+$390
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+66%+$867.07
Will Trudeau resign Today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$36.24
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+97.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidzebacked Vettori · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$211.29
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+49.3%+$208.82
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Jones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+25%+$137.73
All 4 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+37.4%+$247
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office?backed Mufasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$43.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bryson complete the Hole in 1 Challenge by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$340
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.