TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,401

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,559 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4cc3…7552backed No49c12,715$6,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,281.012250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c8,680$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.372400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes40c6,826$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,064.775147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No41c5,825$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.0816943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No15c5,772$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.464136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No45c4,777$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.9112531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes54c4,704$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.494650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No70c4,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.997254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd413…ce5fbacked No35c3,767$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes75c3,603$2,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.597041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No48c3,431$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.1517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked No59c3,325$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.264729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes58c3,200$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.041729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes67c3,100$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.937646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes45c2,952$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.292321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes58c2,578$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.382445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab8…2a81backed No58c2,567$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50080%0 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No44c2,563$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.8913537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5b…19d9backed Yes50c2,448$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.33742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No43c2,411$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.279533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No6c2,153$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.753859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.184042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9403844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes66c1,849$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No33c1,817$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.993925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes46c1,768$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.686634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes52c1,677$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed No51c1,557$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8788…dc26backed Yes52c1,538$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.291040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ec…f1a4backed No29c1,536$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b5…a7dfbacked Yes52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77ad…9c2fbacked No48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes57c1,402$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60513673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No34c1,110$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1223149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes27c1,050$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No30c1,000$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7008030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes44c1,000$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.112524%6 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed No51c1,000$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.442839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked No51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No38c999.97$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…0eddbacked Yes29c993.48$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.371338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes56c961.39$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.949129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No36c946.63$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.778741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdef…010bbacked Yes64c911.55$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No70c899.96$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No53c886.51$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.25851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No56c886.09$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.715756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked No24c881.64$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.511435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3832…bf79backed Yes59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No36c836.5$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.397441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes62c805.13$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.139426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked No17c804.72$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.562842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No32c800$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25613029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c2…66f0backed No42c793.45$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No40c790$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.795137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes30c743.33$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.332065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x946f…6a27backed No39c699$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.472133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed No30c670.34$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No39c662.74$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.817834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No39c648.37$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.0716535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes65c617.13$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.932650%13 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8316backed No33c599.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked No65c591.54$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes40c589.9$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.552941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked No41c557.36$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.583033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9921…1c14backed Yes37c540.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No44c533.84$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2122347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x174a…f2cebacked No68c513.88$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes66c513.67$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.124146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No41c509.81$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.161,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked No33c508.17$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.522040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c51…827ebacked No52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5be…a613backed Yes75c493.77$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.341090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9240…aa8bbacked Yes31c483.96$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.96650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+104.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed No53c445.97$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.372133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes55c445.86$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3123639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e72…0603backed No45c438.29$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed No4c434$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f2…aabcbacked No34c425$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No49c412$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.886432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2565234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed No42c400$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1663737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed No51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d9…8508backed No51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e09…c03abacked No46c380$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.881752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.371464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x891b…eee1backed Yes29c341.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.48650%3 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+107%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes60c320$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.24126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No41c319.26$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.98843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eab…dd73backed No32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No33c304.42$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.728646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15317355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x008f…3104backed No34c298.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1c…90ccbacked No43c277.16$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes63c276.99$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed No52c276.95$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.081330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb53c…07c4backed Yes52c275$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.