TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe367…f235

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$575Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$575.17
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$367.2
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+1,150%+$920
Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$64.6
Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$57.13
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$220.7
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$57.75
Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$237.37
Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$29.5
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$19.7
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$201.71
Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+43.4%+$265.09
Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST+203%+$65.66
Will Trump nominate Bobby Jindal for HHS Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump nominate Thomas Homan for Homeland Security Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+51.5%+$14.28
Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,098Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+127.6%+$1,401.75
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,580Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+88.4%+$1,397.73
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$831.73
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$101.08
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+81.8%+$45
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+89.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.85
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+1,328.6%+$186
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+461.8%+$93.71
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+476.9%+$300.98
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$27.1
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$262.72
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+120.7%+$213.3
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$18.2
Will Republicans have 51 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$822Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$822.15
Will Republicans have 50 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$352
Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$328
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+233.3%+$700
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,669Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+189.5%+$3,161.78
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,507Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$2,506.66
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$407
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$94.5
Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$1,050
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,028Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+92.3%+$1,872
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$303.5
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid+37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+1,150%+$920
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.85
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.02
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,883Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29.3%+$845.31
Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$281.4
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$147.4
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$136
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$41.65
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$53.03
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$109.34
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,041Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,041.02
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$361
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,092Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,091.75
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$466.91
All 4 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2024, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+128.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+78.6%+$85.8
Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+177.8%+$292.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida vs. Houstonbacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$885Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+160.9%+$1,423.2
Houston vs. Dukebacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$700
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+455.6%+$63.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT+121.1%+$19.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penn State vs. Oregonbacked Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+63.9%+$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+33.5%+$29.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$131.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.