Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc951ae7c7cbb135bea112091e4430b9cb6e52c54438730bc0144aa3a9e4ec7ef

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 3, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $463,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $356,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $463,430 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes	0c	24,960$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes	5c	23,424$1,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,150.02	110	13.6%15 W · 95 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No	46c	20,055$9,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,915.08	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes	32c	16,318$5,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,195.13	89	21.3%19 W · 70 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+105.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes	9c	15,341$1,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,312.05	200	34%68 W · 132 L	+9.0wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes	61c	14,839$9,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,036.68	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No	43c	14,745$6,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,410.11	52	36.5%19 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes	22c	10,954$2,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,403.11	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes	29c	9,868$2,834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,833.52	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-71%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes	28c	9,795$2,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,761.02	143	30.8%44 W · 99 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes	59c	8,797$5,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,217.66	97	21.6%21 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes	3c	8,732$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.79	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc833…c62dbacked Yes	35c	6,501$2,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,291.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e7d…a84bbacked Yes	2c	6,371$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6a…bee7backed Yes	61c	5,000$3,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,050	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	42c	4,970$2,063 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,906.92	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	51c	4,969$2,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,543.7	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes	58c	4,915$2,857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,857.4	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90db…46cbbacked Yes	59c	4,627$2,733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,732.82	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	+75.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17c4…2e0fbacked Yes	57c	4,422$2,529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,528.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	36c	3,964$1,413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.37	192	37.5%72 W · 120 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	12c	3,848$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.25	166	12.7%21 W · 145 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked Yes	12c	3,522$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.2	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No	47c	3,363$1,595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,768.57	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No	52c	3,065$1,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,466.24	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48da…6d88backed Yes	64c	3,037$1,932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,932	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…e414backed Yes	22c	2,971$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.46	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	60c	2,910$1,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,749.7	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes	19c	2,673$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.22	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed No	38c	2,644$1,004 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,640.21	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes	50c	2,551$1,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,276.06	361	4.4%16 W · 345 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes	56c	2,533$1,418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,418.33	102	33.3%34 W · 68 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e56…5e72backed Yes	65c	2,462$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.09	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes	13c	2,407$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.73	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x930c…2333backed Yes	3c	2,387$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.78	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e35…ec6bbacked Yes	16c	2,245$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.84	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-52%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed Yes	24c	2,218$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.7	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	33c	2,038$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.08	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No	63c	1,988$1,251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$737.42	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c9…93a2backed No	38c	1,987$755 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,232.1	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	32c	1,979$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.57	232	25%58 W · 174 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked Yes	31c	1,961$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	31c	1,859$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.47	167	44.3%74 W · 93 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x924f…373bbacked Yes	19c	1,853$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No	42c	1,687$716 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$971.12	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+55%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec76…1036backed Yes	63c	1,662$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.94	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb92…c583backed Yes	9c	1,643$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.31	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	76c	1,634$1,248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.87	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35f…fb1cbacked Yes	6c	1,604$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc343…7863backed Yes	18c	1,600$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a6…3292backed Yes	9c	1,550$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes	4c	1,522$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.65	101	27.7%28 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c6…2c0bbacked Yes	22c	1,335$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.24	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed No	71c	1,309$925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.66	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.15per pick	30cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes	7c	1,270$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.62	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked Yes	61c	1,267$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.6	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes	13c	1,258$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed Yes	33c	1,209$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.02	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	43cpaid	+103.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c77…af46backed No	39c	1,162$456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705.81	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2461…906fbacked Yes	9c	1,154$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	5cpaid	+423.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b5…9628backed Yes	13c	1,143$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No	53c	1,076$573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.67	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-35%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	33c	987.89$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.89	117	38.5%45 W · 72 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbca…6244backed No	44c	957.58$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.88	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd689…dc54backed Yes	39c	933.91$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x709a…7651backed Yes	66c	898.22$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd34…1b66backed Yes	10c	855.29$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b91…4c26backed Yes	67c	854.22$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes	24c	825.47$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf94e…0bb4backed Yes	26c	813.7$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.88	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafca…e73fbacked Yes	18c	812.56$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.93	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed Yes	62c	806.45$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-6.4wins	-0.24per pick	53cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes	17c	801.1$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6193…d924backed Yes	11c	800$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	29	31%9 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes	14c	764.55$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.66	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked Yes	66c	757.61$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes	32c	740$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.08	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	75c	733.47$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.89	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes	16c	730$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.3	55	30.9%17 W · 38 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed No	44c	729.84$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.19	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+64.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes	15c	724.23$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.79	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes	18c	690.28$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.73	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2493…8a11backed No	66c	671.63$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.35	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No	78c	670$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd848…626fbacked Yes	31c	587.63$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.7	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes	68c	586.87$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.07	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x416e…64a8backed Yes	69c	583.27$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	70cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes	63c	565.55$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.86	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes	7c	564.28$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-93.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df7…94d6backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1266…cd8cbacked No	44c	552.82$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.66	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes	37c	527.76$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.3	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-4.6wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-49%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8fea…8f7bbacked Yes	8c	527.69$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x893d…6b68backed Yes	6c	517$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf846…7341backed No	33c	512$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.04	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8387…ace9backed Yes	12c	509$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5f…cf95backed Yes	65c	507.77$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.05	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes	32c	507$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.91	121	29.8%36 W · 85 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes	58c	503.79$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.2	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-4.4wins	-0.15per pick	57cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?this page
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?Yes won
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?No won
Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event