TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$540,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$675,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b32…5950backed Yes44c22,922$10,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,830.952737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No9c16,662$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.7411013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8c6…2c0bbacked Yes71c11,641$8,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes38c11,536$4,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,140.332339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes62c10,176$6,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,916.365317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes50c9,248$4,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,623.8810127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes65c9,152$5,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,178.051952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+38.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes38c8,633$3,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,369.135236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed Yes78c8,442$6,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.161050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No1c6,336$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.04780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed No33c5,816$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-75.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No55c5,280$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.5757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes39c5,019$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,052.046235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.9914330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No7c5,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad63…21bcbacked Yes36c4,672$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,974.9450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes60c4,661$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,861.241827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes64c4,259$2,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes58c4,205$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.35728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes76c4,076$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed Yes63c3,866$2,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No38c3,413$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.395038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6887…a246backed No40c2,849$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e35…ec6bbacked Yes70c2,846$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.47333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3544…f21bbacked No66c2,802$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No62c2,770$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.592114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-49%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed Yes72c2,736$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.691145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick30cpaid-9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72e7…dc57backed No22c2,700$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked No54c2,674$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.133259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No31c2,649$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.0920034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes51c2,479$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.57936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…92d9backed Yes49c2,476$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No59c2,368$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.21250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes54c2,272$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.531,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c9…93a2backed Yes28c2,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42cb…2e68backed No50c1,970$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca6…ca05backed Yes50c1,950$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes49c1,810$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.316744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes45c1,773$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.8423225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d4…9dafbacked No46c1,734$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes66c1,710$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.833318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Yes47c1,700$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9011330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No66c1,650$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0812733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes47c1,619$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.74650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x209c…ae3abacked No64c1,576$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8387…71e0backed Yes73c1,507$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.54366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes51c1,485$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.32744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.578555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e56…5e72backed Yes57c1,420$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b1…5614backed Yes77c1,371$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.233151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes30c1,285$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.959721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No45c1,202$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.653834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes49c1,202$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.743135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes42c1,200$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6923842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked No74c1,170$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No63c1,146$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.281315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-75.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes61c1,110$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e98…9a6ebacked Yes74c1,076$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes72c1,018$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.519742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x873b…166cbacked Yes60c999.99$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No39c999.96$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.997451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes56c996.33$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.3910233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed Yes68c960.26$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.182832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes51c908.74$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.12313.2%1 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No33c848.17$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.341,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No75c820.92$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes24c799.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60534726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No5c780$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.37423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No14c773.37$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1520614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes56c764.7$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.467345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1013…45cfbacked No43c750$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Yes67c748.8$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.073129%9 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…0055backed Yes29c742.81$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.944330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bc7…b81cbacked No2c723.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed Yes28c701$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.741833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes36c652.88$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.66732.8%22 W · 45 L+0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes42c651.06$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf94e…0bb4backed Yes66c640.98$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2493…8a11backed No40c605.48$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked No14c592.53$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd848…626fbacked Yes54c587.63$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No38c563$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3919237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No63c555$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.652927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb196…02ccbacked Yes66c553.18$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec9…b301backed Yes71c540.74$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe318…bc12backed No38c540$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb971…12aebacked No10c538.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed No59c528.47$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5971…bec3backed Yes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2158…7941backed Yes36c488.76$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.76633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No3c486.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.822931%9 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No43c477.88$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6412129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafca…e73fbacked Yes71c470.15$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa4…7983backed No65c460.28$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes43c459$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4416612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x996b…95d4backed Yes74c433.17$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed Yes56c430.72$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-40.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.