World Politics · resolved market
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87249ba3fc6a660bfcd6165b941fa7b3dc96924e04b2e59a00be69c9866c43f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $540,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $675,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 44c | 22,922$10,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,830.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 9c | 16,662$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.74 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…2c0bbacked Yes | 71c | 11,641$8,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,323.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 38c | 11,536$4,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,140.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 62c | 10,176$6,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,916.36 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 50c | 9,248$4,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,623.88 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 65c | 9,152$5,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,178.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 38c | 8,633$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,369.13 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 78c | 8,442$6,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 6,336$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 33c | 5,816$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 5,280$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916.57 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 39c | 5,019$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,052.04 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.99 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 7c | 5,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…21bcbacked Yes | 36c | 4,672$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,974.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 60c | 4,661$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 64c | 4,259$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 4,205$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 76c | 4,076$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 63c | 3,866$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 38c | 3,413$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.39 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6887…a246backed No | 40c | 2,849$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ec6bbacked Yes | 70c | 2,846$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3544…f21bbacked No | 66c | 2,802$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 62c | 2,770$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.59 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 72c | 2,736$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed No | 22c | 2,700$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 54c | 2,674$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.13 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 31c | 2,649$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.09 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 51c | 2,479$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.5 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…92d9backed Yes | 49c | 2,476$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 59c | 2,368$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 2,272$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.53 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…93a2backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…2e68backed No | 50c | 1,970$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…ca05backed Yes | 50c | 1,950$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 49c | 1,810$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.3 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 45c | 1,773$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.84 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked No | 46c | 1,734$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,710$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.83 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 66c | 1,650$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 47c | 1,619$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked No | 64c | 1,576$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…71e0backed Yes | 73c | 1,507$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 51c | 1,485$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…5e72backed Yes | 57c | 1,420$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed Yes | 77c | 1,371$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.23 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 30c | 1,285$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.95 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 45c | 1,202$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.65 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 49c | 1,202$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.74 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 42c | 1,200$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 74c | 1,170$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 63c | 1,146$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes | 61c | 1,110$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e98…9a6ebacked Yes | 74c | 1,076$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 72c | 1,018$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…166cbacked Yes | 60c | 999.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 39c | 999.96$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 56c | 996.33$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.39 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 68c | 960.26$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.18 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 51c | 908.74$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.12 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 848.17$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 75c | 820.92$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 799.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 5c | 780$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 14c | 773.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 56c | 764.7$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.46 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked No | 43c | 750$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 67c | 748.8$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.07 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 29c | 742.81$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.94 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked No | 2c | 723.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 28c | 701$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 36c | 652.88$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.6 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 42c | 651.06$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…0bb4backed Yes | 66c | 640.98$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…8a11backed No | 40c | 605.48$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked No | 14c | 592.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 54c | 587.63$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 38c | 563$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 63c | 555$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…02ccbacked Yes | 66c | 553.18$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…b301backed Yes | 71c | 540.74$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe318…bc12backed No | 38c | 540$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb971…12aebacked No | 10c | 538.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed No | 59c | 528.47$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…bec3backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…7941backed Yes | 36c | 488.76$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 3c | 486.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 43c | 477.88$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…e73fbacked Yes | 71c | 470.15$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…7983backed No | 65c | 460.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 43c | 459$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…95d4backed Yes | 74c | 433.17$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 56c | 430.72$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?this page
- Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?No won
- Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.