TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$387,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$299,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes11c26,787$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,857.7780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes19c20,607$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,928.985236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes0c20,513$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.511020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes6c18,806$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.5211013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc343…7863backed Yes12c10,348$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes12c8,836$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.0720034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed Yes53c7,975$4,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,227.581833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Yes55c7,751$4,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,257.782737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes10c7,683$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.792339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes12c4,834$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.3116612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe70…781fbacked Yes30c4,586$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8e…0045backed Yes8c4,500$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.516121.3%13 W · 48 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+164.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes37c4,364$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.051827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes18c4,326$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.416235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb92…c583backed Yes15c4,206$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.631520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes15c4,204$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.091330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf846…7341backed Yes9c3,717$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.01450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed No39c3,615$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes12c3,455$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.524143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes18c3,204$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.955038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87ed…0055backed Yes16c3,083$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.384330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes18c2,937$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5389631.3%30 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6887…a246backed Yes13c2,858$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes23c2,799$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.26728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed No72c2,546$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes14c2,209$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0725337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed Yes8c2,187$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.781520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes12c2,186$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.36313.2%1 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c2,157$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.271,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes15c2,150$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.027423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes4c2,038$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.581560%9 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes5c2,037$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.123614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes8c1,930$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes17c1,831$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.636149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes16c1,815$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.663135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4b…d6ffbacked Yes8c1,656$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes12c1,651$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes4c1,633$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes24c1,545$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.956634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c9…93a2backed Yes9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2461…906fbacked Yes13c1,482$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+423.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a6…3292backed Yes14c1,325$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52c…4125backed Yes7c1,311$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes17c1,269$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0111738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d0…1ab2backed Yes15c1,241$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1013…45cfbacked Yes16c1,217$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes16c1,178$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6116744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd10…9667backed Yes9c1,168$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed Yes13c1,127$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-75.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe04f…6574backed Yes13c1,089$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155e…69b7backed Yes9c1,074$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.074924.5%12 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2158…7941backed Yes11c1,056$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5971…bec3backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e35…ec6bbacked Yes15c995$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.59333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e3…ca27backed Yes13c961.17$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.032035%7 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ba…5663backed Yes17c955.96$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes12c905$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.274650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes15c894.61$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.535530.9%17 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc46b…f0d6backed Yes13c894.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes18c888.07$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.415518.2%10 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6e…ab49backed Yes18c869.76$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2b…2e45backed Yes12c829$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb971…12aebacked Yes8c807.56$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes25c806.42$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.71837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked Yes17c790.26$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.573259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes12c773.68$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4938023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd34…1b66backed Yes14c773.11$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.451216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes16c770.03$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.573318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x924f…373bbacked Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes6c746.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e7d…a84bbacked Yes14c725.3$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e4…53c3backed Yes19c644.07$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.03757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed No72c641.71$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5434726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44cd…b0b9backed Yes13c589.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd848…626fbacked Yes14c587.63$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes12c555$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.62927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes10c544.46$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.969721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafca…e73fbacked Yes30c539.52$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca69…fd01backed Yes23c525.33$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.39650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca25…aecebacked Yes13c508.77$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.96110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed Yes12c505.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick30cpaid-9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6a…3134backed Yes10c499.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.491050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes10c486.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed Yes14c478.6$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes49c464.87$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…d717backed Yes13c457.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df7…94d6backed Yes11c456.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes44c455.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked Yes14c427.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b2…5b08backed Yes13c425.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6da6…55a0backed Yes14c420.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc975…9e5dbacked Yes4c414.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes65c400$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes8c396.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.93911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cb…1ea1backed Yes25c395.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes13c387.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbd…48debacked Yes11c366.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Yes14c363.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.263129%9 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.