World Politics · resolved market
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74739a425dc26565ff1065f72f13afccde89086e7016589ebf970571f0607978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $299,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 11c | 26,787$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.7 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 19c | 20,607$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.98 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 0c | 20,513$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 6c | 18,806$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.52 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc343…7863backed Yes | 12c | 10,348$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 12c | 8,836$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.07 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 53c | 7,975$4,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,227.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 55c | 7,751$4,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,257.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 10c | 7,683$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.79 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,834$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.31 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…781fbacked Yes | 30c | 4,586$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 8c | 4,500$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.51 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 37c | 4,364$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,326$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.41 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…c583backed Yes | 15c | 4,206$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 15c | 4,204$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…7341backed Yes | 9c | 3,717$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed No | 39c | 3,615$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 12c | 3,455$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.52 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 18c | 3,204$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.95 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 16c | 3,083$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.38 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 18c | 2,937$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6887…a246backed Yes | 13c | 2,858$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 23c | 2,799$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed No | 72c | 2,546$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 14c | 2,209$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.07 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 8c | 2,187$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 12c | 2,186$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.36 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 2,157$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 15c | 2,150$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,038$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,037$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,930$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 17c | 1,831$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.63 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 16c | 1,815$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.66 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…d6ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,656$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,651$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 4c | 1,633$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 24c | 1,545$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.95 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…93a2backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…906fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,482$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +423.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…3292backed Yes | 14c | 1,325$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…4125backed Yes | 7c | 1,311$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 17c | 1,269$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d0…1ab2backed Yes | 15c | 1,241$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,217$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 16c | 1,178$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…9667backed Yes | 9c | 1,168$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 13c | 1,127$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…6574backed Yes | 13c | 1,089$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…69b7backed Yes | 9c | 1,074$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…7941backed Yes | 11c | 1,056$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…bec3backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ec6bbacked Yes | 15c | 995$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…ca27backed Yes | 13c | 961.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…5663backed Yes | 17c | 955.96$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 12c | 905$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 15c | 894.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.53 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46b…f0d6backed Yes | 13c | 894.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 18c | 888.07$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.41 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…ab49backed Yes | 18c | 869.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…2e45backed Yes | 12c | 829$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb971…12aebacked Yes | 8c | 807.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes | 25c | 806.42$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 17c | 790.26$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 773.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 14c | 773.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 16c | 770.03$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…373bbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 6c | 746.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7d…a84bbacked Yes | 14c | 725.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…53c3backed Yes | 19c | 644.07$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed No | 72c | 641.71$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cd…b0b9backed Yes | 13c | 589.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 14c | 587.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 12c | 555$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 10c | 544.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…e73fbacked Yes | 30c | 539.52$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…fd01backed Yes | 23c | 525.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…aecebacked Yes | 13c | 508.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 12c | 505.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3134backed Yes | 10c | 499.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 10c | 486.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 14c | 478.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 49c | 464.87$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…d717backed Yes | 13c | 457.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 11c | 456.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 44c | 455.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 14c | 427.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…5b08backed Yes | 13c | 425.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…55a0backed Yes | 14c | 420.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…9e5dbacked Yes | 4c | 414.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 65c | 400$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 8c | 396.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…1ea1backed Yes | 25c | 395.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 13c | 387.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…48debacked Yes | 11c | 366.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 14c | 363.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?this page
- Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?Yes won
- Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.