Premier League · resolved market
Will Ukraine win Group E?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384513039d891184dff2b517ff8f9cc9fada12c2ecb70f526d5d85681f22d156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 24c | 6,402$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.24 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,093$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 13c | 1,983$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 77c | 1,660$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.85 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…bbe0backed Yes | 6c | 1,150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 6c | 350.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Yes | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…7094backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…f175backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 70c | 50.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed No | 79c | 50.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…4feabacked Yes | 32c | 47.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…ef9cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024b…83c2backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cb…64b3backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine win Group E?this page
- Will Belgium win Group E?No won
- Will Romania win Group E?Yes won
- Will Slovakia win Group E?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.