TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe7e1…bb47

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
133
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+562.3%+$1,686.75
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$368
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$61.63
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$2,454.55
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.9
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+80.8%+$121.19
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$950
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$83.48
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$172.76
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$98.82
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$89
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$40.8
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$98.05
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.02
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$104.24
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$329.51
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$54
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$21.47
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)backed Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$161.4
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT3756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.96
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.48
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$249.31
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$28.59
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$443.86
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+62%+$44.01
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$23.35
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$5,284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,284.07
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.25
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$25.58
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$8.91
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$22
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.41
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$24.52
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+153.4%+$19.95
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$120.52
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$576
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Thunder vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Pelicans vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Kings vs. Spursbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+49.3%+$14.78
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+270.4%+$54.07
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Timberwolves vs. Kingsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Suns vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+47.1%+$14.12
Wizards vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.87
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Nets vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT+37%+$5.55
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT+49.3%+$7.39
All 16 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2025, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Everton be relegated?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$44.78
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST+78.6%+$47.14
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+134.2%+$26.84
Will Fulham win on 2024-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+100%+$20
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+41.8%+$6.27
Will Brentford win on 2024-10-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$4.23
Will Ukraine win Group E?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$10.52
Will Portugal win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$41.56
Will Czechia win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$40
Will Spain win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2024, EDT+122.2%+$18.33
Will England win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2024, EDT+135.8%+$23.09
Will Turkey win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT+59%+$29.5
Will France win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$121.92
Will Belgium win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+138%+$27.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+52.1%+$520.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.