Us Politics · resolved market
Trump positive favorability on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf173dca784b2d3c4ba86c40413f9267a20bada1b2a6c90f4c772d4062b848136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed Yes | 19c | 3,630$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 59c | 1,997$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.84 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 34c | 1,800$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.98 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,732$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 7c | 1,498$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3b…0b43backed Yes | 5c | 1,060$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed No | 63c | 876.62$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 56c | 770.48$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.13 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed No | 56c | 728.71$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 41c | 708$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.08 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 41c | 611.66$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 12c | 501.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 6c | 425.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 4c | 413.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd877…5f55backed Yes | 5c | 371.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 343.32$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.47 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 63c | 280.87$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 12c | 265.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 58c | 258$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes | 42c | 239.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 7c | 219.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 36c | 194.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 182.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 42c | 169.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed Yes | 44c | 157.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…9c7ebacked Yes | 20c | 151.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…3ef4backed Yes | 62c | 140.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…c4afbacked Yes | 37c | 138.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…74aebacked No | 66c | 132.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 8c | 126.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc189…b71dbacked No | 65c | 124.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…3cc2backed Yes | 36c | 121.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 120.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 65c | 114.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…bf79backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed No | 21c | 86.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 64c | 78.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 33c | 65.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ab…5fb4backed Yes | 33c | 60.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…3abfbacked Yes | 37c | 56.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…fa0dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…36bcbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…ebefbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.