TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$442,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$477,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 836 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2317…c891backed Thunder72c43,510$31,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,998.7911842.4%50 W · 68 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat33c31,332$10,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,489.883,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Heat49c23,973$11,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,806.9559653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Heat42c14,420$6,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,014.7865642.5%279 W · 377 L-2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c1…5a05backed Thunder50c13,828$6,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,913.592544%11 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39a4…cfd0backed Thunder51c13,740$7,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,732.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Heat10c12,753$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.8570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Heat47c12,297$5,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,718.7377745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…6440backed Heat49c11,906$5,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,833.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Heat29c10,174$2,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.4961532.2%198 W · 417 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…a674backed Heat47c10,008$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,703.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…74f3backed Thunder53c10,003$5,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,701.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3572…fadebacked Thunder53c10,002$5,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,701.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef5…1f71backed Heat47c10,002$4,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,701.120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Thunder79c9,364$7,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.0626547.9%127 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Thunder51c9,227$4,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,521.1372241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63bc…17e9backed Heat50c7,444$3,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,721.88450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…50c9backed Heat15c7,336$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.247024.3%17 W · 53 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…3665backed Thunder70c7,144$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.434060%24 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Heat49c6,266$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,077.7319137.7%72 W · 119 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Heat0c5,700$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2537011.4%42 W · 328 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x756b…500fbacked Thunder50c5,034$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc725…34e7backed Heat48c5,006$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16fd…5b47backed Thunder54c4,812$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.524344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc91…9b40backed Heat29c4,471$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e30…ef89backed Thunder66c4,391$2,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.287741.6%32 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721c…9bfcbacked Thunder54c4,344$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.136347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Thunder52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9208150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.9576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed Heat51c3,698$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.083839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder50c3,500$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.9530443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…821cbacked Thunder51c3,423$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.746642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…d28dbacked Heat50c3,420$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.16560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d6…2f2abacked Thunder49c3,420$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed Thunder62c3,369$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.9916838.7%65 W · 103 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Heat2c3,271$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.681,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder50c3,238$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.911,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Heat47c3,055$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.6917243%74 W · 98 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d08…0080backed Heat43c2,980$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.135330.2%16 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Heat35c2,851$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.4161345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Heat47c2,588$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.8349849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Heat39c2,520$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.5285347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder58c2,505$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.996447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91ce…00f6backed Thunder50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd32…33c4backed Heat51c2,349$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.251225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3aa1…637bbacked Heat9c2,250$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014928.6%14 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid+26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1396…b149backed Thunder55c2,198$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.014254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x330b…e446backed Thunder64c2,100$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.9911146.8%52 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…79f7backed Heat48c2,092$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+77.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ceb…0c87backed Thunder49c1,939$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.067251.4%37 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Thunder51c1,845$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.1173051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bed…43b2backed Heat49c1,830$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.661729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Heat25c1,595$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.6339843.5%173 W · 225 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc4…0bfdbacked Thunder49c1,512$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.111457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1636…8c6abacked Heat49c1,510$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.89922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Thunder53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7051,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Heat36c1,444$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.9572341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder55c1,411$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.051,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Thunder45c1,400$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7708343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Heat34c1,310$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1270951.3%364 W · 345 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat47c1,301$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.421,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat48c1,240$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.252,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Thunder56c1,187$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.231,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat48c1,099$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.51,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e5…e26cbacked Thunder60c1,091$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.8712651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed Thunder49c1,052$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.475947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad7c…004dbacked Heat48c1,050$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7685…e082backed Heat18c1,043$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.154316.3%7 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+102.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9200…1fb9backed Heat10c1,025$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Thunder51c1,020$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.6127546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Heat33c1,018$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33653134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69aa…8847backed Thunder69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3103284.4%27 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+14.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d53…0644backed Thunder54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46012154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Thunder50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50016242%68 W · 94 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f7…0108backed Thunder60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed Thunder51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fc…b576backed Thunder53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick64cpaid-45.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23b1…8e10backed Thunder53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4708937.1%33 W · 56 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Thunder52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4808548.2%41 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Thunder54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Heat48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9947542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Thunder50c999.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.9575347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1048…f83abacked Heat47c995$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.651533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…cfb9backed Heat24c968$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8110236.3%37 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Thunder68c948.71$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.5934169.5%237 W · 104 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc68a…0e4abacked Heat50c878$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Thunder53c867.92$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.9212451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ee…68f3backed Thunder51c862.75$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Thunder62c800$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3069338.7%36 W · 57 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+91.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Heat45c798.75$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.556744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb370…0cb0backed Heat35c785.87$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.026450%32 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed5…a76ebacked Thunder51c784.51$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.5115558.7%91 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed Heat48c760.08$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6611150.5%56 W · 55 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Thunder53c748.37$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.275935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0661…a72ebacked Thunder53c738.34$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.028469%58 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Heat48c729.33$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7445251.1%231 W · 221 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Thunder65c670$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.148137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5f…8d3dbacked Thunder80c630$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…ee60backed Thunder60c625.25$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.110054%54 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Heat48c624.27$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.596838.2%26 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.