China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde06508942f7f7d83bdbfc7c5b07c88e20891e9ef7440d74c9c259f2347fb8d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 39c | 3,752$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed No | 61c | 3,635$2,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed No | 43c | 3,262$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…dfb5backed No | 3c | 3,158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…474ebacked No | 3c | 3,097$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…5c3dbacked No | 3c | 2,669$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe543…edd1backed No | 3c | 2,652$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 47c | 2,215$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 59c | 2,211$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…5973backed No | 3c | 2,131$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c0…80e0backed No | 4c | 2,109$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…290fbacked No | 3c | 2,107$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eaaebacked No | 4c | 2,019$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…b74abacked No | 3c | 2,015$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…515bbacked No | 3c | 1,997$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…83efbacked No | 3c | 1,979$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,949$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…8bd2backed No | 4c | 1,887$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…a21dbacked No | 3c | 1,868$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…0be2backed No | 3c | 1,840$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…05cbbacked No | 4c | 1,756$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 1,643$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…3f74backed No | 3c | 1,635$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…402abacked No | 3c | 1,532$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…7446backed No | 3c | 1,511$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…c752backed No | 3c | 1,482$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1810…ebaabacked No | 3c | 1,453$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…59b1backed No | 3c | 1,425$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…1a08backed No | 3c | 1,388$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbe…3ef2backed No | 3c | 1,346$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dad…0755backed No | 3c | 1,315$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…3ed9backed No | 3c | 1,306$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…11cbbacked No | 3c | 1,272$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 59c | 1,268$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 37c | 1,264$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…3f8fbacked No | 3c | 1,261$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 23c | 1,248$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +331.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…0d0ebacked No | 3c | 1,229$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…01c0backed No | 3c | 1,222$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…eb04backed No | 3c | 1,213$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…62dabacked No | 3c | 1,210$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7017…c3fcbacked No | 3c | 1,180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…070ebacked No | 3c | 1,161$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f8…4c2dbacked No | 3c | 1,151$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,132$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 67c | 1,120$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…d9fdbacked No | 3c | 1,116$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1b84backed No | 3c | 1,082$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…8a04backed No | 3c | 1,049$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…d3fabacked No | 3c | 1,047$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ec…543ebacked No | 3c | 1,033$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,030$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…851dbacked No | 3c | 1,019$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…f3c7backed Yes | 45c | 999.97$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf434…7552backed No | 3c | 962$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…01a6backed No | 3c | 942$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…29ecbacked No | 3c | 925$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 56c | 894.04$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 875.14$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.04 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…0f9bbacked No | 3c | 875$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…5d63backed No | 3c | 866$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 33c | 863.93$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d2…571ebacked No | 3c | 838$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 48c | 836.6$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9e7cbacked No | 3c | 834$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c9…0e72backed No | 3c | 829$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 819.04$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…a8adbacked No | 3c | 800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…d212backed Yes | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a5…7749backed No | 3c | 788$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked Yes | 39c | 751.5$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…4abfbacked No | 3c | 747$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…469abacked No | 3c | 723$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 42c | 716.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +401.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…b171backed No | 3c | 715$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…1032backed No | 4c | 702$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c9…8b05backed No | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 42c | 678.61$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked Yes | 34c | 675.06$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 49c | 671.95$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8de…e902backed No | 3c | 650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7928…7ffabacked No | 4c | 649$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked No | 75c | 648.06$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe566…db6cbacked No | 3c | 632$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…18cabacked No | 3c | 631$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…2d7abacked No | 4c | 629$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d5…dd66backed No | 3c | 626$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…b092backed No | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…257fbacked No | 3c | 620$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…aeb9backed No | 80c | 618.75$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…ebefbacked No | 3c | 592$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…3481backed No | 4c | 590$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 59c | 570.15$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…2e9fbacked No | 3c | 542$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…8525backed No | 3c | 531$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 505.27$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a71…9353backed No | 4c | 492$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 4c | 481.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.