China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7c1699caabf6e1259b3fff8d53d0ccead64b164a76ea06c7f937f57419b5f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3118…ee98backed Yes | 7c | 5,253$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…6cd2backed Yes | 2c | 4,728$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 2,690$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,650$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf770…ddb9backed Yes | 3c | 2,509$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…1f76backed Yes | 3c | 2,340$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…7b3ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,339$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 2c | 2,215$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…6efbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfad…4b32backed Yes | 3c | 1,948$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,733$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,482$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589d…99a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,420$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 15c | 1,415$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…aad1backed Yes | 3c | 1,383$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…635abacked Yes | 5c | 1,250$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a4…8c7bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,239$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…c7e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,171$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…c26cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…d6c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…8e04backed Yes | 3c | 1,165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…c895backed Yes | 3c | 1,162$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…9311backed Yes | 3c | 1,084$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c3a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,064$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,048$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…295fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,045$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…82b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,016$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…eeafbacked Yes | 3c | 998$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…28d6backed Yes | 3c | 972$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…1e74backed Yes | 3c | 955$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 951.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…a887backed Yes | 3c | 937$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 2c | 929.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9a…beeabacked Yes | 3c | 917$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…9f3fbacked Yes | 3c | 901$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…1082backed Yes | 3c | 892$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 2c | 890.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…06d7backed Yes | 2c | 869.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…8174backed Yes | 4c | 846.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 6c | 799.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 2c | 791$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 3c | 749.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 743.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…7558backed Yes | 3c | 708$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 696.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 2c | 633.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 633$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 2c | 622.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 16cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…5010backed Yes | 22c | 600.75$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 7c | 577.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 3c | 570.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 555$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c5…fd7ebacked Yes | 3c | 539$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 417.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 416.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3c61backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 315.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 12c | 303.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 285.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…b369backed No | 77c | 210.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 159.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…afdebacked Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b7…e38cbacked No | 77c | 107.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…6ef2backed Yes | 23c | 105.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 99.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…7c16backed No | 77c | 72.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…47acbacked No | 78c | 69.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…caa2backed Yes | 16c | 63.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…3192backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…b6e6backed No | 78c | 49.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 34c | 38.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…2c63backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.