China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccea89b06c0223bf0f86f2ad23f9ae438352407530a22e567026ab85860e6b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $542,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $537,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $542,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf885…82d4backed Yes | 4c | 3,763$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes | 73c | 3,265$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…5dcfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,244$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…b2c0backed Yes | 4c | 3,182$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 3,087$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657d…143dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,057$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed Yes | 10c | 3,043$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…2998backed Yes | 2c | 2,990$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…54f5backed Yes | 3c | 2,940$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…733fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,905$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…6162backed Yes | 3c | 2,859$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…276cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,814$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4040…237bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,802$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…9f6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,652$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb264…cf1abacked Yes | 3c | 2,612$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…919ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,590$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…c172backed Yes | 2c | 2,510$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…bf70backed Yes | 2c | 2,470$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…0d98backed Yes | 2c | 2,311$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 43c | 2,215$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f7…4d40backed Yes | 3c | 2,170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…5299backed Yes | 3c | 2,157$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 62c | 2,138$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.96 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…6386backed Yes | 2c | 2,073$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…c950backed Yes | 2c | 2,032$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…1b27backed Yes | 4c | 1,881$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9a…f219backed Yes | 3c | 1,795$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f68…8926backed Yes | 3c | 1,791$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9367…8b16backed Yes | 60c | 1,775$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…9f67backed Yes | 2c | 1,764$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c8…30afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,762$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…6c16backed Yes | 4c | 1,754$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…e62cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,676$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…474ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,674$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf173…9623backed Yes | 3c | 1,621$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…6a7ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,589$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fee…3e12backed Yes | 2c | 1,588$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdf…ae07backed Yes | 3c | 1,571$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6f…1df9backed Yes | 13c | 1,550$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac34…7833backed Yes | 2c | 1,542$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…675dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,542$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…cb78backed Yes | 2c | 1,537$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…9009backed Yes | 13c | 1,529$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…2728backed Yes | 2c | 1,508$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…a6b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…8525backed Yes | 2c | 1,477$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5743…adf3backed Yes | 4c | 1,470$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…8b70backed Yes | 4c | 1,460$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…0402backed Yes | 3c | 1,445$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6638backed Yes | 2c | 1,420$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…bb35backed Yes | 13c | 1,419$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbe…3ef2backed Yes | 2c | 1,416$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2e05backed Yes | 2c | 1,407$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…a745backed Yes | 3c | 1,331$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…c3d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,326$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…5809backed Yes | 4c | 1,296$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…1082backed Yes | 13c | 1,237$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…1359backed Yes | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…a004backed Yes | 4c | 1,225$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…440cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,223$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…440cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,221$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f6…2976backed Yes | 13c | 1,207$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f9…b949backed Yes | 3c | 1,205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…5c1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,188$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…6465backed Yes | 3c | 1,187$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…0635backed Yes | 3c | 1,169$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…8bcabacked Yes | 3c | 1,167$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…9b77backed Yes | 2c | 1,161$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7017…c3fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,151$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…5973backed Yes | 3c | 1,138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…19debacked Yes | 3c | 1,131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…1784backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…3975backed Yes | 13c | 1,118$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…f847backed Yes | 3c | 1,117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…9050backed Yes | 3c | 1,089$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2e…4b71backed Yes | 3c | 1,088$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…b351backed Yes | 2c | 1,086$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…701abacked Yes | 3c | 1,084$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…234dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dc9cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,047$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…0595backed Yes | 2c | 1,026$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37e…f3d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,021$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…15c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,021$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67a…8d68backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecf…d7c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,006$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…0810backed Yes | 3c | 998$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…64f8backed Yes | 3c | 993$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…b3dcbacked Yes | 4c | 990$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…bd99backed Yes | 13c | 981$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…1032backed Yes | 3c | 970$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…5d1abacked Yes | 4c | 966.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…4e2dbacked Yes | 3c | 953$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdc…32ebbacked Yes | 2c | 946$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 44c | 941.62$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.88 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 941.56$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.31 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…14f4backed Yes | 3c | 935$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…159abacked Yes | 2c | 932$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…f11dbacked Yes | 3c | 930$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…2628backed Yes | 2c | 929$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…6c0dbacked Yes | 3c | 926$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.