China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c39c9a16c3357969d42fa4b008b119965a71157bc138f8230d0db529069f4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3118…ee98backed Yes | 4c | 8,869$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.68 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…d2b1backed Yes | 0c | 6,198$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,172$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 4,641$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,586$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…63f9backed Yes | 5c | 2,714$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 4c | 2,669$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…994ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,502$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 3c | 2,213$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,787$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…7f4ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,654$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fc…9758backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,504$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,364$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,157$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 4c | 999.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 3c | 942.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 3c | 791$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 779.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 772.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 697.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 3c | 550.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 522.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…ca45backed Yes | 2c | 512$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…65d5backed Yes | 2c | 440.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…72c4backed Yes | 6c | 412.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 386.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 6c | 307.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 303.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 6c | 239.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…f323backed Yes | 12c | 228.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.