China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3b3a2807f69ee9de69984efa57308f938735584dd842268f4629c2132ce665e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,777$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…f0cfbacked No | 78c | 2,523$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 7c | 2,442$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…a37fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,923$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 26c | 1,843$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 2c | 1,753$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,331$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…6a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,193$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485c…7f50backed Yes | 6c | 1,135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…5d67backed Yes | 3c | 976.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 927.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…a710backed No | 71c | 656.33$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…fc1bbacked Yes | 6c | 542$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1b48backed Yes | 39c | 535.13$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 4c | 523.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 30c | 522.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 31c | 519.74$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 7c | 481.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…c9debacked Yes | 4c | 439.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 422.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 3c | 416.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 416.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 352.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 14c | 329$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 42c | 328.69$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ef…3870backed Yes | 14c | 294.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…e6b4backed Yes | 18c | 282$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…1f36backed Yes | 6c | 251.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…3800backed Yes | 5c | 234.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 5c | 230.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 10c | 214.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9627…c4d0backed Yes | 12c | 203.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…2882backed No | 58c | 188.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…4b37backed Yes | 14c | 158.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed No | 71c | 155.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb913…b77ebacked Yes | 14c | 147.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4399…47d5backed Yes | 14c | 135.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 67c | 117.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 25c | 112.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 108.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 101.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a7…84a8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 67c | 70.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ea…ee55backed Yes | 30c | 63.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ec…dbe3backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…6c8ebacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed No | 58c | 36.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…cc2bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda2…45f9backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…3cfcbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.