Premier League · resolved market
Will Belgium win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4175d46476fd22989a93a51daf3870c8886d1e5f82e1cbf2e3b6f88f9d336b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 69c | 18,033$12,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,523.56 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 32c | 9,177$2,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,210.92 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 30c | 8,751$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,110.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…94b0backed Yes | 1c | 7,837$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 1c | 4,971$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…c0b8backed Yes | 67c | 1,490$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…e2d6backed Yes | 21c | 198.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…f488backed No | 76c | 170.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…071cbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…ccfdbacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…1455backed Yes | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…7c06backed Yes | 69c | 101.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 31c | 86.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 37c | 79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…089ebacked Yes | 68c | 73.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…c420backed Yes | 43c | 69.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…1a80backed Yes | 47c | 59.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ade8backed Yes | 33c | 51.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec9…7f92backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade0…dbacbacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb585…c3e8backed Yes | 42c | 28.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium win?this page
- Will Slovakia win?Yes won
- Will the match be a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.