TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Belgium (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Belgiumof Belgium, New Zealand
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,085,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,194,164

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,085,802 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 628 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c1e…bab3backed Belgium66c149,998$98,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,999.3822348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed New Zealand34c120,320$40,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,636.0477152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed New Zealand32c100,006$32,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,001.8422139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New Zealand29c98,954$28,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,223.74,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdac7…6d53backed Belgium65c50,000$32,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,500.099131.9%29 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Belgium67c36,766$24,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,123.278,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Belgium76c35,208$26,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,467.082,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed New Zealand32c32,333$10,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,346.536634.8%23 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Belgium67c24,180$16,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,859.378847.7%42 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…04a9backed Belgium68c23,529$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,529.412050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New Zealand18c22,608$3,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,978.51,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed New Zealand32c20,209$6,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,466.8625844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Belgium68c20,000$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,40016957.4%97 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed New Zealand34c19,039$6,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,473.263,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Belgium68c14,706$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.8818740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New Zealand32c13,028$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,142.973,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Belgium66c12,475$8,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,218.912,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a22…7b00backed Belgium77c10,390$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.613467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed New Zealand3c10,090$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2638333.9%130 W · 253 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed New Zealand33c10,000$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.1525038.8%97 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4582…619ebacked Belgium66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.998735.6%31 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked New Zealand34c8,824$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.1422451.3%115 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6219…aa6fbacked Belgium68c8,520$5,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.5510057%57 W · 43 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed New Zealand33c8,468$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.4415843%68 W · 90 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New Zealand15c8,427$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.734,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked New Zealand33c8,421$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9424028.8%69 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Belgium80c8,263$6,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.728042.1%118 W · 162 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed New Zealand21c8,021$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.516641%68 W · 98 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Belgium67c8,000$5,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64010471.2%74 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Belgium66c7,160$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.041,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed New Zealand33c7,000$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.9850243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Belgium68c6,607$4,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.552,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Belgium77c6,581$5,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.712536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked New Zealand33c6,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95047144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed New Zealand43c5,621$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430.376847.1%32 W · 36 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Belgium66c5,555$3,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.736247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked New Zealand16c5,184$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.9714132.6%46 W · 95 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked New Zealand34c5,094$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.9670244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New Zealand24c5,021$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.541,55952.4%817 W · 742 L+97.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf298…ada5backed Belgium68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6006943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Belgium61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95026447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Belgium67c4,777$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.920262.4%126 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed New Zealand33c4,545$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.2447442.8%203 W · 271 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Belgium74c4,415$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.6921946.1%101 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked New Zealand34c4,085$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.741,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed New Zealand38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52019148.2%92 W · 99 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New Zealand34c3,961$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.622,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf83…3385backed Belgium73c3,932$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.2331545.4%143 W · 172 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7a…aa54backed Belgium67c3,731$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.341926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed New Zealand36c3,640$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.3736250%181 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked New Zealand33c3,500$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15547643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed New Zealand32c3,500$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.9948441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed New Zealand34c3,460$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.951,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked Belgium68c3,457$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.9815453.9%83 W · 71 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ede…4284backed Belgium67c3,300$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10018738%71 W · 116 L+0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked New Zealand34c3,008$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.551,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked Belgium78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66011031.8%35 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b0…13a3backed New Zealand38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14015128.5%43 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed New Zealand33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99016041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed New Zealand34c2,998$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.321,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed Belgium67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.074161%25 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed Belgium73c2,973$2,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.6729030.7%89 W · 201 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Belgium74c2,936$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.4943737.8%165 W · 272 L-0.9wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Belgium68c2,818$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.762,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Belgium65c2,691$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.821,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Belgium73c2,662$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.3641968.3%286 W · 133 L+65.4wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked New Zealand12c2,603$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.4575335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d4…30fcbacked Belgium68c2,500$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80022032.3%71 W · 149 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed New Zealand33c2,400$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79244144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5d…80a3backed Belgium78c2,336$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.073865.8%25 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Belgium67c2,230$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.943248.4%209 W · 223 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Belgium66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68011254.5%61 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb748…dbddbacked Belgium66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6805339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475b…02b4backed Belgium65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7003557.1%20 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+67.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Belgium68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6408942.7%38 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e4…8b89backed Belgium76c1,848$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.9620253.5%108 W · 94 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8263…e57ebacked New Zealand33c1,770$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.14639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Belgium66c1,752$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.6865737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New Zealand34c1,749$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.721,94542.7%831 W · 1,114 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc229…1b74backed Belgium68c1,662$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.758858%51 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Belgium75c1,610$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.712,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Belgium67c1,600$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5281,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Belgium65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.4611640.5%47 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Belgium66c1,504$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.8430465.1%198 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Belgium65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52537754.4%205 W · 172 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55fb…fe7bbacked Belgium66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51010945%49 W · 60 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New Zealand32c1,478$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.882,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac5c…49acbacked Belgium68c1,455$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.491643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0500…540bbacked Belgium68c1,442$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.544358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Belgium68c1,258$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.6410356.3%58 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed New Zealand35c1,250$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.423,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75a4…3d29backed New Zealand33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007545.3%34 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Belgium65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42013952.5%73 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f40…4383backed Belgium68c1,176$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.474240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed New Zealand33c1,172$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.8220856.7%118 W · 90 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed New Zealand33c1,111$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.6314348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb25…f7f3backed New Zealand9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.958615.1%13 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e4…8048backed Belgium66c1,105$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.5810045%45 W · 55 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Belgium67c1,103$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.5251032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6980…5478backed Belgium65c1,100$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3854772.3%34 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.