New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2f852b978e8ecf641e190501a8c23a1ef38ddc3d441ac244ca31167a172ea39

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $394,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $355,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,945 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe301…8654backed Under	1c	55,933$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.26	441	30.8%136 W · 305 L	-11.6wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	10c	37,736$3,931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,931.22	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f14…29d1backed Under	1c	27,500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed Under	1c	25,971$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.71	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under	2c	25,000$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.44	445	39.6%176 W · 269 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed Under	2c	25,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	282	29.4%83 W · 199 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-38%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under	7c	12,489$857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.39	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed Under	11c	9,799$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.91	160	41.3%66 W · 94 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under	9c	8,955$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.95	702	44.6%313 W · 389 L	+13.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Under	10c	5,999$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.92	362	35.9%130 W · 232 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under	2c	5,244$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.45	213	14.1%30 W · 183 L	+14.3wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+135.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Under	11c	5,086$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.44	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under	12c	3,899$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.06	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x753d…2ce0backed Under	2c	3,769$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.38	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb285…68d3backed Under	8c	3,750$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	101	69.3%70 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under	1c	2,673$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.46	217	22.1%48 W · 169 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	9c	2,321$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under	14c	2,232$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.82	135	48.9%66 W · 69 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	135	30.4%41 W · 94 L	+7.7wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x293b…7a58backed Under	10c	1,972$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	9c	1,941$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.7	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Under	15c	1,907$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.08	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e7…4697backed Under	9c	1,700$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	234	40.2%94 W · 140 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under	4c	1,667$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.57	413	31%128 W · 285 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64e7…50d1backed Under	18c	1,362$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.23	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc595…994dbacked Under	2c	1,333$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	145	26.2%38 W · 107 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b9…a053backed Under	11c	1,200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	83	42.2%35 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	8c	1,060$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.46	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…5e92backed Under	2c	1,033$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	99	26.3%26 W · 73 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd0e…cdf0backed Under	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61cd…7d31backed Under	8c	894.42$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.61	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa566…72debacked Under	14c	887.64$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.69	70	40%28 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked Under	12c	879$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.7	189	29.1%55 W · 134 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf4…ac20backed Under	4c	833.33$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	345	33.6%116 W · 229 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Under	14c	747.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.72	981	34.8%341 W · 640 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Under	14c	747.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.97	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	10c	638.73$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.45	695	34.8%242 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Under	14c	621.53$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.61	383	33.9%130 W · 253 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed Under	10c	605.36$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.54	230	36.1%83 W · 147 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Under	11c	600$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f8…4078backed Under	3c	583.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe84e…b520backed Under	11c	545.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	113	37.2%42 W · 71 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebb…8220backed Under	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	282	24.1%68 W · 214 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under	7c	499.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4f…88f0backed Under	10c	484.28$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.43	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51af…8720backed Under	10c	379.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under	8c	371.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	432	30.1%130 W · 302 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under	9c	325.83$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.32	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	9c	323.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	12c	279.66$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.56	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1f67…4869backed Under	13c	269.23$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	10c	251.32$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dee…e373backed Under	13c	244.97$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.68	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f7…27b7backed Under	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	176	38.1%67 W · 109 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc86b…6e26backed Under	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	150	40.7%61 W · 89 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0056…d0ecbacked Under	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Under	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d1c…3347backed Under	11c	181.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	469	39.4%185 W · 284 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under	18c	175.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.53	201	54.7%110 W · 91 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	10c	167$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4884…237cbacked Under	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	100	55%55 W · 45 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Under	18c	160.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.81	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under	12c	152.94$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	589	42.6%251 W · 338 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked Under	10c	146$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	320	46.6%149 W · 171 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Under	13c	145.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8123…f127backed Under	8c	145$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	135	31.9%43 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	14c	127$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab56…e635backed Under	12c	126.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	160	52.5%84 W · 76 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Under	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	406	49.8%202 W · 204 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3c…104bbacked Under	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed Under	11c	102.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	181	18.2%33 W · 148 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Under	18c	66.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d0…5da3backed Under	31c	44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5this page
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 2.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Over won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-4.5)New Zealand won
Spread: Belgium (-5.5)New Zealand won
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: New Zealand (-4.5)Belgium won
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5)Belgium won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event