TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,327 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc21d…e3c6backed Under0c29,400$29 inLost-$29.44240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under16c916.95$147 inLost-$146.718,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Under35c628.64$220 inLost-$220.0253448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under13c581.26$78 inLost-$78.432,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Under38c479.98$184 inLost-$183.721,47544.9%663 W · 812 L-4.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Over65c461.54$300 inWon+$161.5437955.7%211 W · 168 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ee…6ab0backed Over65c307.69$200 inWon+$107.6912763.8%81 W · 46 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b71…f840backed Over66c304.7$200 inWon+$104.712829.7%38 W · 90 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Over57c273.86$156 inWon+$117.7626155.2%144 W · 117 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9516…0bcbbacked Under41c243.9$100 inLost-$10056240.6%228 W · 334 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa896…4819backed Over62c230$141 inWon+$88.541163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+43.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cee…4191backed Over65c200.52$130 inWon+$70.1810347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Over60c83.87$50 inWon+$33.554250%21 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under43c75.39$32 inLost-$32.423,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Under35c75$26 inLost-$26.252,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3f…392ebacked Under16c62.5$10 inLost-$101457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Under38c39.47$15 inLost-$1516535.2%58 W · 107 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over59c37.5$22 inWon+$15.362,80446.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L-27.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.