Fifa International · resolved market
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66bfdc4ef31acea02724996dbb6c250519a17da56b3fa56cad9275dbf38b3628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 3c | 41,044$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.41 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 4c | 38,055$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.21 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Under | 2c | 13,465$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.72 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 2c | 4,594$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 4c | 3,026$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 306 | 26.5%81 W · 225 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 4c | 3,014$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 199 | 46.7%93 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…c128backed Under | 2c | 3,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Under | 2c | 2,754$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 285 | 26.3%75 W · 210 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Under | 3c | 2,369$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under | 2c | 2,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…7047backed Under | 2c | 1,985$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 3c | 1,724$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 2c | 1,417$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 217 | 22.1%48 W · 169 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Under | 2c | 1,351$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 229 | 33.6%77 W · 152 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…a2bcbacked Under | 3c | 1,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd961…35debacked Under | 2c | 1,278$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 240 | 28.8%69 W · 171 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…3363backed Under | 3c | 1,272$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Under | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 25.8%88 W · 253 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 2c | 1,145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Under | 5c | 1,052$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked Under | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 177 | 35%62 W · 115 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…7dd1backed Under | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…22f7backed Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…f90abacked Under | 2c | 999.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x616a…5083backed Under | 3c | 771$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 2c | 725.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…eab5backed Under | 3c | 710$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 241 | 36.9%89 W · 152 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…79f4backed Under | 2c | 707.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Under | 2c | 654.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 455 | 36.9%168 W · 287 L | -26.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 2c | 616.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 432 | 30.1%130 W · 302 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Under | 3c | 576.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 469 | 39.4%185 W · 284 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…3502backed Under | 2c | 500.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 445 | 24.9%111 W · 334 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…d0ecbacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 3c | 483.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Under | 5c | 413.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 25.8%64 W · 184 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5this page
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 2.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Over won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
- New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Belgium (-3.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Belgium (-4.5)New Zealand won
- Spread: Belgium (-5.5)New Zealand won
- Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)Belgium won
- Spread: New Zealand (-4.5)Belgium won
- Spread: New Zealand (-5.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.