TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6ede…4284

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
212
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT18738%71 W · 116 L+0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 187 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,475Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$1,025
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,267.49
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,230
France vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,320Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$1,680
France vs. England: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+300%+$824.99
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,575Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+217.5%+$3,424.99
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$1,343.44
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.95
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+273.8%+$2,739.48
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.9
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.7
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.36
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.04
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,342Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,342.37
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,479.97
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$32,515Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32,515.05
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,995Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,995.46
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,960
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,377.5
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,676Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,676.47
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.88
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,548Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$1,892
Spread: France (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,405.2
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,736Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$1,364
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)backed Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,008
Showing 25 of 187 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$317
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-06-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+437.3%+$652.41
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$269.99
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.76
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$470.25
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.37
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,362Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,361.92
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$23.61
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$673Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$673.45
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,190Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$2,190.07
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$63
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.88
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$776Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$775.81
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$803Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$472.09
All 15 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$178.49
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$185
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sunbacked Connecticut Sun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$221.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.43
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$258
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,078Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.4%+$1,581.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,809Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$891
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.