Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9133e5b3c9d0153d7b1e66977d80ecaf261ecc8ffeb059235a45eecc03e91b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 4,193$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.7 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 16c | 2,901$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.44 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 1,971$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.92 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 71c | 1,600$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…a1d5backed Over | 64c | 1,373$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…4284backed Under | 63c | 1,275$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 71c | 1,200$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.99 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…646bbacked Over | 56c | 1,100$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 71c | 909.94$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.06 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 879.85$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 80c | 736.6$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 71c | 699.98$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.99 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 679.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.91 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 29c | 646.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.17 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 29c | 646.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.17 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 20c | 600.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.68 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 71c | 499.96$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.97 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 71c | 499.95$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.96 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…301bbacked Over | 60c | 470.63$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 29c | 418.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.47 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 25c | 400.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.52 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 71c | 400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 71c | 399.96$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.97 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 18c | 391.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.01 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 29c | 385.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.62 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 29c | 318.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 63c | 317.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…442bbacked Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Over | 63c | 279.92$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 29c | 266.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.37 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 71c | 259.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 71c | 259.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.59 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 40c | 252.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.27 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 29c | 232.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 42c | 227.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 71c | 160$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 71c | 156$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 71c | 156$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 29c | 139$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 124.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 43c | 116.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Under | 74c | 85.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 29c | 67.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 29c | 56.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…2d85backed Over | 34c | 56.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed Under | 30c | 52.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 70c | 48.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Over | 77c | 32.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68b…dc9ebacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…e018backed Over | 70c | 20.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…a8f7backed Over | 57c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 0.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.