Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05cdfa387106262377e77366132e69d58e2d362a42327604e096d8132e42add9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,622$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.43 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 68c | 2,937$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.74 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 23c | 1,600$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 23c | 1,200$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 23c | 909.91$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 19c | 904.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.95 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 732.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 77c | 552.6$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 77c | 546.96$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 506.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 22c | 484.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 78c | 457.71$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 215 | 52.1%112 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 77c | 372.51$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 23c | 260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 23c | 259.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3639backed Over | 16c | 236.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 23c | 156$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 23c | 156$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 41c | 122.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…eee6backed Over | 24c | 102.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 63c | 100.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 23c | 94.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 26c | 75.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Over | 24c | 73.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 16c | 64.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 52.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Over | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 77c | 37.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 79c | 37.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 77c | 31.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Under | 65c | 30.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…0c86backed Under | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 78c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 78c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Under | 78c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 334 | 54.8%183 W · 151 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 0.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.