IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c020db75fac30d0b3ee73acb481e94d6aee3790828650aa9f0b50d43fedca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $512,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 657 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked No | 30c | 44,975$13,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,498.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 67c | 26,163$17,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,612.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 18c | 16,791$2,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 54c | 16,280$8,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,409.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 40c | 12,088$4,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,214.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Yes | 70c | 11,249$7,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 67c | 11,000$7,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 59c | 10,149$6,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,133.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…d2eebacked No | 50c | 8,604$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…cf93backed Yes | 72c | 7,835$5,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked Yes | 74c | 7,818$5,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…dfc0backed Yes | 77c | 7,105$5,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 34c | 6,331$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 56c | 6,313$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 40c | 5,738$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 46c | 5,400$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,897.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 70c | 4,955$3,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…d7a0backed Yes | 65c | 4,500$2,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…3990backed Yes | 68c | 3,960$2,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cf…9452backed Yes | 67c | 3,868$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…4b58backed No | 25c | 3,647$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 31c | 3,517$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed No | 26c | 3,496$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 71c | 3,449$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 29c | 3,367$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 27c | 3,333$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 49c | 3,106$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 52c | 3,020$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…d3fbbacked Yes | 69c | 2,879$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 66c | 2,699$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 49c | 2,558$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 74c | 2,297$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…6be7backed Yes | 30c | 2,292$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed No | 41c | 2,124$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked No | 53c | 1,926$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 66c | 1,852$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…3b04backed Yes | 71c | 1,761$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 34c | 1,625$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.58 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…0e7dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,616$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53b…73f5backed Yes | 56c | 1,607$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 52c | 1,586$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 48c | 1,577$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 64c | 1,544$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 27c | 1,513$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 1,483$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,477$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 43c | 1,438$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…f8fabacked No | 35c | 1,434$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…8203backed Yes | 70c | 1,408$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 27c | 1,400$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…9b01backed Yes | 71c | 1,400$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 44c | 1,374$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,338$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed Yes | 76c | 1,300$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 70c | 1,289$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 55c | 1,281$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed No | 31c | 1,267$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 40c | 1,263$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 73c | 1,250$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 43c | 1,227$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.51 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 46c | 1,210$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 54c | 1,209$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed No | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 1,199$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f4…2bd8backed Yes | 17c | 1,177$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +476.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 57c | 1,174$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 48c | 1,145$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 1,137$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,097$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 52c | 1,063$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,062$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 23cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 52c | 1,051$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,049$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.51 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 22c | 1,037$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.61 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 52c | 1,023$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 61c | 1,023$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c55…11dbbacked Yes | 71c | 1,014$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826e…2bebbacked Yes | 66c | 1,012$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 58c | 1,006$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.69 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9117…f87cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…4cc1backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…8c5abacked Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…4284backed No | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked No | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 66c | 995$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 42c | 985$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 46c | 984$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 40c | 978$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 58c | 973$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +364.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 71c | 969.92$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 77c | 965.21$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 43c | 961$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff64…3d67backed Yes | 74c | 950$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 25c | 925$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 58c | 918$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.