IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a7b51443dc1f1c7c679a28a334d6d2a945bd7e2f4500394494124a13222607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 14c | 10,783$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.69 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 11c | 9,812$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 12c | 8,663$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0471…1f46backed Yes | 21c | 5,322$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,431$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.23 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 15c | 2,803$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 19c | 2,407$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 2,401$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb5…50c3backed Yes | 18c | 2,285$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…f476backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 15c | 1,899$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,840$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.92 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,750$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 23cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 76c | 1,653$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 16c | 1,473$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 13c | 1,404$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,402$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 22c | 1,368$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 13c | 1,357$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…9ef1backed Yes | 17c | 1,255$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 80c | 1,172$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…6be7backed Yes | 6c | 1,165$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 22c | 1,077$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 15c | 989$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 78c | 975$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 16c | 942$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 78c | 936$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…5532backed Yes | 26c | 924.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 13c | 913$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 14c | 912$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 79c | 891$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 21c | 874$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 79c | 869$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 21c | 868$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 16c | 836$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 12c | 828$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +124%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 11c | 782$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…47c1backed Yes | 21c | 771.09$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 18c | 760.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 16c | 739.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 11c | 698$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…8046backed Yes | 12c | 684.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 14c | 676$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 664.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 651.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed Yes | 13c | 643$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 15c | 621.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 15c | 611.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…f85ebacked Yes | 16c | 600.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Yes | 17c | 587.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 13c | 584.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c1…384ebacked Yes | 18c | 576.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 14c | 575$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e7f3backed Yes | 18c | 563.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 24c | 560$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 24c | 557$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 554.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 14c | 550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 24c | 536$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…fa1dbacked Yes | 15c | 526.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 20c | 521$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 20c | 519$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 15c | 516.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 20c | 510$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…709cbacked Yes | 19c | 500.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked Yes | 11c | 499.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…4166backed Yes | 21c | 475.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…1da5backed Yes | 15c | 473.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…451dbacked Yes | 16c | 459.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 11c | 434$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 432.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 12c | 425$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…c311backed Yes | 21c | 421.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 9c | 418.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 9c | 411.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 14c | 408$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 78c | 402$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 14c | 394$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 80c | 378$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 376.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 371.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6507…7d79backed Yes | 17c | 360$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 354.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 11c | 342$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 14c | 340$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed Yes | 14c | 334.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 13c | 320$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…de7dbacked Yes | 12c | 307.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…d60ebacked Yes | 16c | 307.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…f806backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 78c | 295$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 293.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…559ebacked Yes | 15c | 268.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.