IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8034ffc35d47f966646cd1807900b415365f759bac771e3d7d9cfce3cf2a9ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 7c | 12,702$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.73 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 10c | 9,187$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…6b24backed Yes | 9c | 3,870$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 3,582$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…6f74backed Yes | 9c | 3,287$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 8c | 2,283$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…ae96backed Yes | 9c | 2,125$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,020$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 23cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6e…728dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,985$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…7a3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,949$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 6c | 1,796$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…ee44backed Yes | 9c | 1,735$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1d…7576backed Yes | 10c | 1,607$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…f476backed Yes | 8c | 1,576$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 6c | 1,558$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 14c | 1,485$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…919ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,431$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 8c | 1,377$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…cf9dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,347$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d83…f54cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,335$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…d04cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,328$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd07f…3bfcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,243$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,199$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,132$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,100$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…fda9backed Yes | 10c | 1,097$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b3…abccbacked Yes | 47c | 1,073$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…abfabacked Yes | 6c | 1,007$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…6c18backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 8c | 965.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 12c | 963$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 9c | 931.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 908.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…47c1backed Yes | 12c | 803.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 747.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…cf2ebacked Yes | 10c | 740$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…a5f7backed Yes | 10c | 725$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 657.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed Yes | 29c | 650$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 12c | 644$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9098…6716backed Yes | 8c | 639.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 9c | 638.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…4166backed Yes | 16c | 618.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 8c | 617.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 603.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 564.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…82dbbacked Yes | 10c | 564$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 12c | 562$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 3c | 558.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 543.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 534.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 10c | 516.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…8905backed Yes | 7c | 514.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…3edebacked Yes | 10c | 501.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked Yes | 9c | 499.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…4676backed Yes | 7c | 499.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 493.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 71c | 490$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…821cbacked Yes | 9c | 481.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c4…1e6abacked Yes | 10c | 444$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 12c | 440$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…d60ebacked Yes | 11c | 439.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 439.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 71c | 419$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 379.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 374.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 371.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 13c | 358.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 356.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…72acbacked Yes | 14c | 352.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…0ce7backed Yes | 15c | 331.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed Yes | 12c | 311$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…559ebacked Yes | 17c | 309.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 12c | 305.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 13c | 301.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 8c | 286.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 18c | 280$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 278.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 29c | 259$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe818…9d32backed Yes | 15c | 253.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…ccf1backed Yes | 8c | 252.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 11c | 248.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 6c | 240$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12da…3160backed Yes | 13c | 235.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…8b07backed Yes | 10c | 231$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 8c | 228.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 7c | 228.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 16c | 228$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…79d1backed Yes | 11c | 220.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…2d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 220.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…6764backed Yes | 11c | 210.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 9c | 207.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 7c | 202.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…f806backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 6c | 199.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 7c | 199.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…7e50backed Yes | 13c | 198.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…2c99backed Yes | 9c | 187.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.