IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad74cc331ad699ef75a043da70cad641b348b2eec5979a3dc0ff95888239c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 2c | 13,027$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.89 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,521$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,064$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,700$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,805$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 2c | 2,775$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e4…e179backed Yes | 2c | 2,456$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,258$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 2,199$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,171$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,940$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,771$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,311$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…4166backed Yes | 7c | 1,217$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…8905backed Yes | 1c | 1,042$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…114cbacked Yes | 4c | 975$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 964.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…dd59backed Yes | 11c | 928.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 909.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 826.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 813.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bd…2334backed Yes | 5c | 730.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 695.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 3c | 677.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 605.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 594.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 572.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 3c | 516.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…4676backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…4d24backed Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…3bd3backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 486.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 480.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 5c | 479.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…821cbacked Yes | 5c | 443.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…cd76backed Yes | 3c | 424.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 424.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 408.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 332.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 295.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 6c | 293.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…aa2cbacked Yes | 4c | 285.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 5c | 278.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…7e50backed Yes | 9c | 210.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 185$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.