IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa928bde6b984b65611fd3a9fde594ae7daafc38572121f6dcc4ac4aaba03df8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $273,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 72,088$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 27,727$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.53 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 3c | 21,603$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed Yes | 0c | 18,887$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…27e9backed Yes | 0c | 10,682$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,455$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,696$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 0c | 5,302$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e4…e179backed Yes | 2c | 4,929$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,482$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195a…8ddcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,253$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,453$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,387$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,082$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…a19abacked Yes | 4c | 1,005$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cb…8981backed Yes | 4c | 1,005$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…58fbbacked Yes | 4c | 995$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 946.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 683.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 75c | 657.17$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 75c | 600$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 569.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 7c | 516.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ba…b7cdbacked Yes | 5c | 288.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 243.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 8c | 227.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…32d8backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 209.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…177dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…67fabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 164.05$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…6ae6backed Yes | 11c | 152.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…44f1backed No | 74c | 118$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +192.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 105.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4952…4d90backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…c795backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.