IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897b618a599afc4106593a796bac1a5ba29935bd1f7584536e3ae957450ab30e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 2c | 21,148$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.64 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 19,344$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 1c | 19,194$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 9c | 6,719$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,672$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…22e8backed Yes | 6c | 4,450$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…9224backed Yes | 5c | 3,578$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…d2eebacked Yes | 3c | 3,184$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…0116backed Yes | 5c | 3,046$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…e28dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,680$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…86f4backed Yes | 5c | 2,354$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22c…f08dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,065$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…0730backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…bdb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,963$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…79c4backed Yes | 9c | 1,903$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…6429backed Yes | 1c | 1,456$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c4…1e6abacked Yes | 5c | 1,393$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…7c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,258$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…7f3cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,238$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acd…40ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,208$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…69f0backed Yes | 5c | 1,181$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…3b82backed Yes | 5c | 1,159$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,155$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dc9cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,090$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…c8a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,053$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…edf9backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…a787backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…3477backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8121…90e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…e899backed Yes | 3c | 999$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 966.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…c1efbacked Yes | 3c | 945$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…b9c9backed Yes | 5c | 907$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…49aabacked Yes | 5c | 871$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 834.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9650…8355backed Yes | 5c | 821$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26d…0389backed Yes | 5c | 812$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…24efbacked Yes | 5c | 796$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…e13fbacked Yes | 5c | 790$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…a918backed Yes | 5c | 732$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…0ac3backed Yes | 5c | 711$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…44e4backed Yes | 7c | 704$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…9575backed Yes | 5c | 696$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…9f15backed Yes | 5c | 676$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…2a23backed Yes | 5c | 660$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 4c | 655.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…8b07backed Yes | 5c | 643$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…7b20backed Yes | 5c | 631$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 628.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…a669backed Yes | 5c | 596$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…a846backed Yes | 5c | 591$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34d…e864backed Yes | 5c | 590$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed Yes | 4c | 572$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 551.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816a…8df4backed Yes | 3c | 543.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf288…590fbacked Yes | 5c | 542$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 5c | 516.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 11c | 475$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes | 6c | 465.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 431.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…4712backed Yes | 5c | 417$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4a82backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 3c | 355.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 3c | 288.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…6dd6backed Yes | 4c | 281.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 4c | 263.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…4fb2backed Yes | 5c | 231$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…32d8backed Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…c15fbacked Yes | 13c | 220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 212.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 211.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Yes | 5c | 204.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…2b42backed Yes | 7c | 168$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 7c | 155.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.