IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8587c25e68ea0f18372d15251bc5d6784999f44b32f6727591483b0f16b425e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 4c | 14,144$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.67 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,832$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 5,555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,907$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…b778backed Yes | 10c | 3,828$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 5c | 2,667$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 2,558$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,277$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 3c | 2,265$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…8addbacked Yes | 10c | 2,055$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfd…ce2fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,016$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 23cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…2851backed Yes | 6c | 1,813$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…9e10backed Yes | 8c | 1,700$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…fe85backed Yes | 8c | 1,639$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,581$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 4c | 1,437$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,415$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…02c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,365$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…b474backed Yes | 4c | 1,318$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…4166backed Yes | 8c | 1,274$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b8…370dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,243$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0b…145cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,239$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 1,200$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 1,142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 5c | 1,133$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…8905backed Yes | 2c | 1,032$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…0402backed Yes | 9c | 1,016$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…4a50backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff0…6f82backed Yes | 9c | 942$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…475abacked Yes | 8c | 882$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…3ce6backed Yes | 8c | 879$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1576…168bbacked Yes | 8c | 871$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3983…81acbacked Yes | 9c | 853$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…26b6backed Yes | 8c | 835$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 2c | 806.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9067…3272backed Yes | 3c | 790.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…e49dbacked Yes | 9c | 770$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb264…cf1abacked Yes | 8c | 769$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9821…cdd3backed Yes | 9c | 752$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…8f1fbacked Yes | 10c | 737$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 734.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 9c | 697.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…e051backed Yes | 10c | 694$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…7a9cbacked Yes | 10c | 683$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37e…8894backed Yes | 10c | 670$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…c8a6backed Yes | 8c | 653.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…0116backed Yes | 9c | 650$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 5c | 640$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 640$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…29a3backed Yes | 10c | 630$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…6e4ebacked Yes | 10c | 620$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…a8b2backed Yes | 8c | 610$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 584.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 582.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…f400backed Yes | 9c | 574$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5203backed Yes | 9c | 539$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570a…cf84backed Yes | 9c | 524$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 5c | 519.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 5c | 516.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 510.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…4676backed Yes | 4c | 499.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 492.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…3bd3backed Yes | 7c | 481.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…821cbacked Yes | 5c | 455.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 4c | 416.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 5c | 406$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8b…a39fbacked Yes | 8c | 401$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 399.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea1…4bf5backed Yes | 10c | 386$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 4c | 384.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…9ce9backed Yes | 6c | 350.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 350.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 345.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…f58dbacked Yes | 5c | 307.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…29a2backed Yes | 6c | 291$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 8c | 231.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed Yes | 7c | 214.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…6bd8backed Yes | 9c | 213.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 210.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…7e50backed Yes | 8c | 203.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 186.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 11c | 180.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3a…4736backed Yes | 7c | 167.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…b422backed Yes | 7c | 153.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 7c | 143.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 8c | 132.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…2680backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.