TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x929d…7ee3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
110
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: F1, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5038%19 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.19
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.25
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+227.9%+$69.49
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+304%+$49.77
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$43.73
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.85
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.19
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$329.97
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.9
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+457.4%+$174.77
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$219
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.9
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.9
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.2
Will France win on 2026-07-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$7.51
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.9
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.13
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)backed Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+180.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+1,905.1%+$2,465.38
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$707Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$706.95
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,307Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,307.07
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$653Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+181.8%+$1,186.21
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+127.6%+$303.49
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$31.69
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+120.3%+$75.35
World Championships: Canada vs. Finlandbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.6
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Swedenbacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.63
World Championships: Norway vs. Latviabacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+86.2%+$211.18
World Championships: Canada vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechiabacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.87
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canadabacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.39
World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovakiabacked Slovakia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norwaybacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.08
All 9 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+71.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
F1 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weatherlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Ligalast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$44.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.