Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44c041c3e5cbcf6427aaf17ab7264534cba1d51bc3d7f8bce1a9e959880f6027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 32c | 5,816$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.55 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 66c | 1,510$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.95 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 16c | 1,125$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.44 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 66c | 833.53$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.78 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 31c | 791.62$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.03 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 460$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 79c | 270$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…d685backed No | 35c | 235.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 66c | 225$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed Yes | 73c | 192$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 158$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 78c | 141.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 65c | 138.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 65c | 109$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…fe31backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…2a51backed No | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 28c | 94.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 56c | 52.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…47e8backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…f0f7backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…a4b4backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 35c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…8824backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.