TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8b3…4484backed No38c3,282$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.596848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes72c2,977$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.7829264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No42c2,649$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.1493840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No29c2,176$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.348650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2288…8f5fbacked Yes67c1,863$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.477100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+93%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe37b…639dbacked Yes34c1,166$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed Yes66c628.57$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.574957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No26c614.04$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.454122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes46c595.35$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.011,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1165536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24a3…ec81backed No55c363.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.561931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No63c350$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.53842.1%16 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-37.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked No56c339.66$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1903764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+58.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No29c312$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4811133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes70c291.67$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.513131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x128e…8ae7backed Yes64c283.71$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.471560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No28c282.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1930839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c275$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.711,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f05…8b8bbacked No67c255.8$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.392458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes78c245.2$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9415446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c202.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8435334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed No28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No33c200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.514849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes36c162.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6434534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa656…2c73backed No64c147$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.492055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No61c130$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No44c126.45$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.631540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c125.4$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0239034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes44c109.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.092850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b3b…8c8dbacked No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf92…7e3fbacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No38c87.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9423323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes52c87$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.066934.8%24 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf196…8c47backed Yes72c83.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e3…7e36backed No28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-30%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No33c66.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9812348.8%60 W · 63 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bed…00d7backed No64c60.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.22540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes35c55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.751968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+57.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb41c…5bd3backed No77c51.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.57356.2%41 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ebf…dc08backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84d…f5ffbacked Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e8…1765backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+50%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9287…ba8cbacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ef…fe3abacked No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.35per pick43cpaid-82.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3c5c…db6dbacked No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc762…8970backed No34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.210967%73 W · 36 L+12.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4182backed No36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb965…01d8backed No74c49.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.991225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb85…665ebacked No29c46.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes49c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.775337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked No54c25.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.964645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f70…c229backed Yes44c23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…398fbacked Yes72c16.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.