Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f3a2ad26642ea229f910477f69722f6063bff8e4b9bbafe23f51d1bea6c06f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 60c | 1,414$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.68 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 26c | 1,210$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.01 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 1,200$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 35c | 878.26$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.15 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 79c | 649.63$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 66c | 409.46$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.95 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 20c | 404$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 80c | 362$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 68c | 192$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 179$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 178$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 39c | 117.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…71fcbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 39c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c6…1f92backed Yes | 24c | 51.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…47e8backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…2807backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…44eebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…31f9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce92…1862backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…8df2backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2c…d598backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…d42dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…eccdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…3e9dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…614abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…a4b4backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48bb…1d9ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad5…e33fbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.