TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,353 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes21c3,654$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.834534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes23c2,430$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.336848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes37c2,386$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.621,26524.5%310 W · 955 L-56.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes30c2,029$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.6415446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes13c1,641$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.082343.5%10 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No78c1,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.994136.6%15 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No74c1,440$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.428650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c1,406$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2435334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x128e…8ae7backed Yes32c849.18$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.361560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed No68c686$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.524330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked No73c546.58$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.584100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed No46c510.82$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.88051.3%41 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes7c493.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.611246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed Yes25c458.48$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c441$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.591,04534.6%362 W · 683 L-93.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed Yes18c388.29$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4619855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No33c366$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.224122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c365.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.891,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes24c364.48$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.279151.6%47 W · 44 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab2…676ebacked Yes28c350$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes16c264.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4412348.8%60 W · 63 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed No74c246.62$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6335750.4%180 W · 177 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d48…ab03backed Yes7c201.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d5…a1ecbacked Yes27c201$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes15c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.623525.7%9 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes11c193.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4930438.8%118 W · 186 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No77c180.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6610743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed40…ef57backed Yes32c178.59$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817f…bf28backed Yes22c174.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.91060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No72c151.39$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.952347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe222…b4cbbacked No69c147.69$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.784332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes27c147.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.863256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes25c142.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3923323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes15c131.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.372119%4 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a8…db62backed No71c130$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes19c128$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.041850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No49c125$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.758353%44 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes45c110$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.26934.8%24 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28b4…d5d4backed Yes30c106.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c106.64$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8839034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes34c105$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.25540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed Yes53c103.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.021435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45b3…c90bbacked No75c102.14$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c100.72$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8530839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1773…8c09backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91e6…a514backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+199.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb87…5742backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3b…8c8dbacked Yes63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf92…7e3fbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235337.7%20 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52df…92dbbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x216d…a4e1backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb9…badebacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadde…0753backed No76c99.44$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes12c95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked No73c94.25$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked No63c91.26$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.772850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b60…88f7backed No76c89.2$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7458…9943backed No76c86.6$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+111.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes62c84.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.931968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+57.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes22c84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.483414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x06d5…09d5backed Yes24c73.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.661741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe194…1cecbacked Yes31c72.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-63.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes28c72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.026933.3%23 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed No70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes22c67.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7819923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa743…61dcbacked No45c67.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.171361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x084a…2a51backed Yes21c66.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.291560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+65.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fa5…7621backed No79c63.9$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.11060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…3225backed No76c61.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes29c60.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.629745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed No50c59.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.131070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f42…8680backed Yes18c56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes22c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-84.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3f2…34d0backed Yes24c54.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c54.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0721815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xb373…c00fbacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…dab9backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b5…e85ebacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…2807backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9026…0564backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd059…4bd5backed Yes74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-73%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.53943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b9…a41ebacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-67%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ec8…0f6ebacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cad…d424backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f5…614abacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb965…01d8backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f6d…aaefbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+50.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x659f…b20bbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef2f…1498backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55543.6%24 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.