TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06d5…09d5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Earnings at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.51
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+141.4%+$19.75
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.06
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.66
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+98.5%+$87.09
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$63.08
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$30.04
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+300%+$46.4
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$27.36
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$34.38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.27
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.11
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 13?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.02
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 9?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.02
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.68
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.88
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.18
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.37
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.94
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$24.25
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.04
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$87.97
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$97.66
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.67
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+127.6%+$68.73
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$33.7
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.26
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+31.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$34.02
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.34
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.32
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+262.3%+$61.08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.82
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$38.79
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+90.8%+$43.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$21.28
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.53
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.05
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$16.52
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$18
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.01
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$24.27
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+68.9%+$91.11
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$17.54
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$10.99
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.14
All 8 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.09
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+62.9%+$164.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$44.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,225.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.01
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.