Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f4da92e95343c2debdc8cc0ea577d0065f63f566974bc41152548b7af068fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $418,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $445,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 1c | 53,917$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 1c | 52,653$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.34 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 1c | 42,911$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 1c | 20,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 1c | 12,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 2c | 10,020$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 1c | 9,252$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 1c | 6,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 1c | 3,701$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…10fabacked No | 3c | 3,428$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 3c | 3,012$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 2c | 2,378$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 1,721$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed No | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 1,158$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 2c | 1,154$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 1,098$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.43 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked No | 2c | 1,012$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed No | 1c | 933.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked No | 2c | 933.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 2c | 750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dad…1838backed No | 2c | 733.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 4c | 681.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked No | 4c | 583.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 61c | 577.65$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…87b2backed No | 24c | 550$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 2c | 549.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 68c | 438.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 67c | 364.09$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 42c | 355.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 347.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae9…4ba7backed No | 33c | 307.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580a…a236backed No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 273.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 39c | 268.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 29c | 260.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 20c | 255.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…915bbacked No | 21c | 204.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 20c | 203$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb061…7486backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 74c | 192.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec9…cf38backed No | 31c | 190.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes | 58c | 172.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 34c | 168.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed No | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 157.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 65c | 157$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…41aebacked No | 33c | 149.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…6bbbbacked Yes | 58c | 136$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 18c | 133.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 125.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 79c | 112.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 109.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…cce1backed No | 24c | 105.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…795abacked No | 43c | 97.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Yes | 56c | 93.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 72c | 88.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked No | 44c | 88.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 21c | 80.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 74.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e5…7087backed No | 28c | 67.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…cb79backed No | 33c | 66.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4067…260fbacked No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec9b…770bbacked Yes | 79c | 50.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…3ba1backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed No | 33c | 48.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Yes | 66c | 48.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 40c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 46.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 66c | 44.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 41.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…c0fdbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed Yes | 70c | 38.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 34.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7582…94d1backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 68c | 27.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed Yes | 57c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…9733backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…b3ddbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…02c7backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…fb14backed Yes | 66c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 77c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?this page
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.