Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1b91b95e0941fafb86b8e55f5f8051bf5620f5b03d8547dfb1cf81e10abf077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,133,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,907,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,133,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 3c | 185,582$4,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,916.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 100,721$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.4 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 3c | 94,662$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…b8d7backed Yes | 8c | 80,539$6,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,174.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 3c | 73,099$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed Yes | 1c | 62,084$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 0c | 60,143$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +218.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 5c | 58,662$3,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa527…9767backed Yes | 2c | 51,666$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 51,649$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 5c | 47,706$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 36,650$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.92 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 1c | 35,309$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,810$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…18fabacked Yes | 2c | 25,380$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 2c | 21,129$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 20,832$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.77 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed Yes | 10c | 20,000$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 3c | 19,669$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 9c | 19,590$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,055$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…e2cdbacked Yes | 2c | 17,647$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,589$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.24 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9114…3568backed Yes | 1c | 17,035$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 16,114$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.42 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 1c | 16,001$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 15,283$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 15,233$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.41 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 5c | 14,985$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,497$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 3c | 13,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 3c | 13,058$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 12,580$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.23 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 2c | 12,504$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 11,915$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 1c | 11,855$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 3c | 11,793$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,932$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 2c | 10,824$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 1c | 10,747$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 3c | 10,555$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 2c | 10,037$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…36cbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,856$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 3c | 9,232$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 2c | 9,175$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…9660backed Yes | 3c | 9,048$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 8c | 9,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.67 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…b803backed Yes | 1c | 8,915$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed Yes | 12c | 8,903$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed Yes | 5c | 8,367$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 8,084$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.74 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 7,971$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 7,966$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,650$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…22debacked Yes | 8c | 7,350$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…66f5backed Yes | 3c | 6,738$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…8954backed Yes | 2c | 6,706$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,576$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 6,482$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…f22ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,468$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 3c | 6,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 6,309$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…2f1abacked Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804e…594bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,178$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…10fabacked Yes | 2c | 6,137$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,882$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5030…e474backed Yes | 8c | 5,554$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 5c | 5,527$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 5,340$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,196$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,010$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363f…ee04backed Yes | 3c | 4,988$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 2c | 4,804$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 4,709$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.66 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,677$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 2c | 4,644$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fd…38a0backed Yes | 11c | 4,598$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 4,307$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.39 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,992$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 3,951$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 1c | 3,921$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…1021backed Yes | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f7c2backed Yes | 4c | 3,674$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,659$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…c192backed Yes | 10c | 3,556$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Yes | 10c | 3,541$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 3,532$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…e598backed Yes | 3c | 3,466$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1871backed Yes | 3c | 3,455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 3,422$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…57babacked Yes | 3c | 3,292$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,289$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.2 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?this page
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.