Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb8bd43ada27e828ce693a5dc2896cd918b64869570761a61048ec78471ce9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,185,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,229,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,185,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 679 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 1c | 201,177$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 29c | 68,368$19,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,783.04 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 63c | 67,401$42,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,793.86 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 23c | 21,684$4,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,792.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 27c | 20,000$5,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,680.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +88%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 26c | 17,793$4,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,153.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 73c | 16,970$12,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,402.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 25c | 15,192$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,338.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 36c | 12,571$4,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,529.26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 39c | 11,554$4,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,089.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 22c | 11,340$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,809.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 69c | 11,035$7,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…a9d4backed Yes | 24c | 10,433$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,910.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 29c | 9,575$2,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,764.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 24c | 8,944$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,760.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 8,794$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,137.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed Yes | 66c | 7,299$4,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes | 30c | 7,055$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,938.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 52c | 6,583$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +386.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 22c | 6,516$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,057.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 61c | 6,185$3,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,772.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 6,082$4,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,618.04 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed Yes | 25c | 6,061$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,521.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +293.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 68c | 5,674$3,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 44c | 5,599$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 66c | 5,583$3,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 56c | 5,519$3,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.55 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 33c | 5,455$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.96 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…254ebacked No | 46c | 5,428$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 66c | 5,118$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386.8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 22c | 4,820$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,775.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 67c | 4,806$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 40c | 4,453$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,668.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 19c | 4,016$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 74c | 4,000$2,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,954.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Yes | 76c | 3,996$3,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 3,936$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 39c | 3,899$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 65c | 3,749$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 53c | 3,721$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 64c | 3,713$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 36c | 3,583$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 26c | 3,512$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.41 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 66c | 3,500$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 25c | 3,366$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.85 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…7333backed No | 70c | 3,337$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed No | 68c | 3,124$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 72c | 3,022$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.16 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed Yes | 76c | 2,936$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked No | 67c | 2,930$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 66c | 2,920$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.79 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…62dabacked Yes | 73c | 2,639$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…0372backed No | 29c | 2,621$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 51c | 2,605$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 34c | 2,600$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 61c | 2,599$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592.48 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 25c | 2,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 59c | 2,463$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…def7backed Yes | 33c | 2,404$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…9823backed No | 69c | 2,340$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed Yes | 36c | 2,333$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 26c | 2,318$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 70c | 2,294$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 37c | 2,288$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 80c | 2,251$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 28c | 2,138$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.84 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed No | 60c | 2,077$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 58c | 2,075$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 67c | 2,052$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.58 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 47c | 2,008$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3f…fec2backed No | 27c | 2,003$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 42c | 2,000$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c4…2696backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…4b83backed Yes | 23c | 1,948$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked No | 74c | 1,911$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…f7c7backed No | 76c | 1,843$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 34c | 1,800$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…25a0backed No | 71c | 1,706$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 23c | 1,700$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 27c | 1,675$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,615$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 37c | 1,595$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 75c | 1,595$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 44c | 1,587$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…85bfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,579$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 1,549$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.49 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed No | 29c | 1,528$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 52c | 1,522$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked No | 64c | 1,520$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 60c | 1,517$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.55 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 60c | 1,450$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.63 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed No | 69c | 1,440$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Yes | 73c | 1,400$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,311$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…e048backed No | 75c | 1,300$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 32c | 1,299$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?this page
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.