TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x44c7…62da

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$511Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$510.52
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+104.2%+$1,041.74
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.1
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+525%+$712.65
Thunder vs. Heatbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Celtics vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
Cavaliers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$714.29
Celtics vs. Trail Blazersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+44.8%+$627.52
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+395.5%+$3,955.18
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+179.8%+$1,797.88
Pistons vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Pacers vs. Celticsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$1,300
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+402%+$1,225.62
Bucks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$18.81
Trail Blazers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$272.63
Magic vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$29.02
Wizards vs. Grizzliesbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+186.1%+$372.27
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$167.55
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+222.6%+$890.32
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,025
Clippers vs. Thunderbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,667Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$416.75
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+51.4%+$154.33
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+26.7%+$81.02
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,400
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,000
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+35.5%+$106.65
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+66.7%+$400
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+63%+$315.1
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+58.7%+$587.3
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+85.2%+$170.37
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+92.3%+$276.92
Will Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$740
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+31.6%+$221.05
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$273
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+66.7%+$266.67
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 19, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$627.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.