TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$534,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$359,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,555 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3256…830cbacked Yes0c53,672$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.227828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes2c29,357$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5625325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes8c29,196$2,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,357.573420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9600…e44ebacked Yes0c15,650$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…d7cebacked Yes0c14,030$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes5c10,796$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.5662412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1af…5611backed Yes0c10,258$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-83%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes7c9,549$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.04180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes4c8,809$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.1154122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes6c7,927$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes7c7,882$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.353817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes15c7,741$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.9845911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes10c5,939$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1820226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes10c5,132$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.313267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes4c5,004$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4815921.4%34 W · 125 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes14c4,760$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.0343719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes6c3,704$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.135249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes13c3,427$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.6128113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes14c3,365$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.3441017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes4c3,088$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206524.6%16 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes7c3,085$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes10c3,047$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31022119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes17c2,965$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.59324.7%23 W · 70 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes6c2,690$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4626516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,406$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.822,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes3c2,402$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.34568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes12c2,399$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5113818.8%26 W · 112 L-0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes16c2,154$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.1268615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No47c2,027$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.2123464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes4c2,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes27c1,932$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.445514.5%8 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes7c1,898$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.228924.7%22 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c1,859$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.982,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes7c1,804$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.057966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c1,748$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9799619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes22c1,724$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3763122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes22c1,713$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.2524618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes12c1,675$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.167022.9%16 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes5c1,657$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.225045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes2c1,646$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes11c1,558$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0615313.1%20 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes7c1,530$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes17c1,473$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4818531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes16c1,455$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233258%2 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Yes71c1,418$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.573938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes3c1,353$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.581526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes2c1,250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes16c1,230$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4910923.9%26 W · 83 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes29c1,194$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.0238811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5393…45c5backed Yes40c1,106$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+68.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes2c1,041$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162119%4 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-63.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes19c1,023$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.934617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705616.1%9 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…797cbacked Yes8c1,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.483225%8 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes8c995.37$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes14c952.02$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.115111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515a…269abacked Yes4c929.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No15c920$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.162623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+179.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes15c919.2$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4465623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No71c913.74$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5531242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes6c906.92$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.628924.7%22 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes17c869.98$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.748310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c7…62dabacked Yes27c867.19$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Yes5c841$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c801.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.511,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes15c762.53$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.18100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes8c713.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58619.8%6 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes10c711.48$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2820717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No79c706.55$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.881,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes7c703.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466113.1%8 W · 53 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No10c703.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.512548%12 W · 13 L+9.2wins+0.37per pick11cpaid+624.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes8c700$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5834714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes10c692.78$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.511816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes41c682.15$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca4…6607backed Yes23c659.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes20c630.3$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.136615.2%10 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No22c630$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.143023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69fc…3f73backed Yes4c595.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.193847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+94.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes5c582.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3482714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes21c556.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.481816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes18c550.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes7c544.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.581506%9 W · 141 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No79c543.33$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.571361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…1e99backed Yes70c507.06$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.451233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…6d69backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes21c499.27$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes41c487.41$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.562420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes17c471.02$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes10c462.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.34010%4 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Yes70c414.34$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.047816.7%13 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes45c407.33$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.149217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes37c397.26$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1453754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes29c386.7$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9433527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes8c369.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.238518.8%16 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes6c359.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.085418.5%10 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes18c358$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.342317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes12c329.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.87626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid+139.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.