Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1daea9151a326f6a9a6fbf89e3b68a268b7f5b229653b934aab112c5def6af58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $534,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $359,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 0c | 53,672$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 29,357$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked Yes | 8c | 29,196$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.57 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9600…e44ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,650$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…d7cebacked Yes | 0c | 14,030$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 10,796$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.56 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed Yes | 0c | 10,258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 7c | 9,549$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.04 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 4c | 8,809$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.11 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 6c | 7,927$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.72 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 7c | 7,882$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.3 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 7,741$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.98 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 10c | 5,939$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.18 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 10c | 5,132$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.31 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 4c | 5,004$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 4,760$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.03 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 3,704$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.13 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 3,427$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.61 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 14c | 3,365$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.34 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 4c | 3,088$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,085$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.34 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 10c | 3,047$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 17c | 2,965$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 6c | 2,690$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.46 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,406$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,402$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,399$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.51 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 16c | 2,154$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.12 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 47c | 2,027$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.21 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 27c | 1,932$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.44 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 7c | 1,898$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 1,859$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.98 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,804$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,748$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 22c | 1,724$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 22c | 1,713$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.25 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,675$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.16 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 5c | 1,657$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,646$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,558$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,530$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 1,473$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.48 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 16c | 1,455$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Yes | 71c | 1,418$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…a067backed Yes | 3c | 1,353$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 16c | 1,230$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 29c | 1,194$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.02 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5393…45c5backed Yes | 40c | 1,106$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,041$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 19c | 1,023$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…797cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 8c | 995.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 14c | 952.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…269abacked Yes | 4c | 929.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 15c | 920$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 919.2$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 71c | 913.74$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.55 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 6c | 906.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 17c | 869.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…62dabacked Yes | 27c | 867.19$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe021…e299backed Yes | 5c | 841$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 801.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 762.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 8c | 713.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 10c | 711.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 79c | 706.55$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 7c | 703.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 10c | 703.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 8c | 700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Yes | 10c | 692.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 41c | 682.15$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca4…6607backed Yes | 23c | 659.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 20c | 630.3$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 22c | 630$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 4c | 595.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 5c | 582.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes | 21c | 556.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes | 18c | 550.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 7c | 544.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 79c | 543.33$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…1e99backed Yes | 70c | 507.06$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…6d69backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 21c | 499.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d054backed Yes | 41c | 487.41$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes | 17c | 471.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 10c | 462.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 70c | 414.34$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.04 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 45c | 407.33$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.14 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 37c | 397.26$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 29c | 386.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 8c | 369.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 6c | 359.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…df18backed Yes | 18c | 358$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 12c | 329.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.