Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe7402ac5e724798163e0f00e1c3c8ffe100285c6ab8e8579a9ba2211617365a

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $326,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $194,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,164 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	18,953$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.22	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	12,574$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.05	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	10,200$1,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,508.91	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,457$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.19	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	8,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	7,157$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.8	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,563$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	0c	4,451$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	3,711$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.14	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,215$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.79	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	3,103$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.88	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	3,034$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.15	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	2,658$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	10c	2,400$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.75	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	5c	2,286$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.3	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	5c	2,216$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes	1c	1,873$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes	16c	1,759$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.6	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	1,680$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.48	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	15c	1,636$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.1	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,402$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	14c	1,400$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.52	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	13c	1,326$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.15	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,023$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes	2c	1,023$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.54	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	14c	1,000$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.67	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	15c	999.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	2c	999.94$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	15c	826.75$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.42	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c0…e3cfbacked Yes	5c	825.39$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.22	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	825.03$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.77	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	676.73$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.19	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes	5c	650.24$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.51	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	2c	602.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd072…f8b6backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	11c	572.5$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.97	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	7c	546.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	502.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	11c	500$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	3c	439.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes	3c	375$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes	13c	370.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	17.4%16 W · 76 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	7c	332$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	15c	331.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	7c	303.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3b…3b65backed Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes	14c	295.63$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce0b…2964backed Yes	4c	290$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	7c	264.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c53…31a4backed Yes	9c	244.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes	8c	171.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	179	20.7%37 W · 142 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c02…9503backed Yes	6c	168$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e4d…9b76backed Yes	7c	157$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	17c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	7c	147$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ef…5191backed Yes	13c	136.35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.38	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	15c	131.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7512…0f34backed Yes	15c	125.49$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes	17c	120.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4265…1cc3backed Yes	12c	104.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.28	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event