Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x427c5076f58c30113d97c335e9693b6d1146dc8c079d8b58998360d821b8bfa7

Rebuilt 17 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $265,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $172,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,029 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	49,000$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.5	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	31,827$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.83	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	11,916$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	1c	9,975$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	4,793$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.39	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	4,124$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.38	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,845$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.53	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bfd…01a2backed Yes	1c	3,659$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	3,446$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	3,346$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.47	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes	2c	3,250$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.63	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	7c	3,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.46	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	2,863$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,193$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	1,708$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	2c	1,618$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.76	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	2c	1,142$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	1,035$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	1c	1,033$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	5c	739.12$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	699.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	544.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.97	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	4c	449.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	350$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	345.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	12c	309.97$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbd9…1c69backed Yes	4c	283.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	20cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	8c	255$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	7c	206$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	17c	205$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.85	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	199.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event