Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf613b5e17a81fa7cc56e9e2932ae85b34960e27c5b1c25451345a06ab2382ea9

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $265,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $157,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,847 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	23,144$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.9	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	9c	7,713$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$686.37	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	7,094$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.1	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,165$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	11c	5,211$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	4c	5,191$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.95	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	6c	4,784$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.79	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	2c	4,500$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	4,385$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.56	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes	15c	4,258$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.09	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	4,027$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.29	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	10c	3,946$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.89	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	3,444$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	3,434$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	12c	3,205$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.85	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	5c	3,067$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.37	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	2,818$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.78	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x969a…e4c5backed Yes	8c	2,593$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.18	113	10.6%12 W · 101 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	2,486$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.35	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	4c	2,300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.7	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	7c	2,041$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.4	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	8c	2,034$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes	15c	2,000$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.6	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	3c	1,998$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.94	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	15c	1,808$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.8	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	9c	1,558$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.94	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	3c	1,428$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	4c	1,417$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.14	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	5c	1,346$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.38	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c0…e3cfbacked Yes	11c	1,127$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.42	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	1,062$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes	5c	1,006$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	6c	998$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0301…e504backed Yes	4c	935.28$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e43…17b6backed Yes	11c	874.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	5c	767.57$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.98	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	696.84$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	8c	675$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	656.51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	644.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	5c	600$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed Yes	4c	591.38$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.79	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b47…25b3backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+92.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf52e…25ccbacked Yes	4c	536.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0368…8febbacked Yes	16c	532.79$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	3c	520.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2f…43a2backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes	9c	500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	463.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes	4c	443.56$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	383.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe21e…379ebacked Yes	10c	375.21$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	11c	356.2$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	11c	346.31$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.41	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0783…dd27backed Yes	14c	313.86$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x752a…282fbacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	18c	299$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.87	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873c…ac48backed Yes	5c	284.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb765…f696backed Yes	16c	254.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb0d…59d0backed Yes	5c	246.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d05…dd30backed Yes	5c	227.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…7512backed Yes	16c	222.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	8c	220.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	14c	212.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	20c	200.85$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.17	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e343backed Yes	10c	199.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	15c	158.16$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a6…a0c3backed Yes	13c	149.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	13c	147$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4265…1cc3backed Yes	12c	146.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac2…3340backed Yes	14c	139.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes	27c	121.38$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.31	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6171…a6c3backed Yes	12c	119.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bfd…01a2backed Yes	14c	107.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7796…298cbacked Yes	15c	107.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd037…15aebacked Yes	12c	107.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db5…d5a6backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	129	32.6%42 W · 87 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8739…e5dcbacked Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfec…9cccbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7226…f753backed Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes	20c	81.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	92	17.4%16 W · 76 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd9…1c69backed Yes	17c	60.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	20cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event