Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6333f4a9e2a0cdf88237f8ebdb3cd82237759315ae43d97119c19fa1ce429e17

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $261,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $203,403

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,034 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	15,204$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.02	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	7,150$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.38	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,044$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf8…2f73backed Yes	1c	5,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0f…1244backed Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2506backed Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf89…1710backed Yes	1c	5,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	5,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	4,887$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.39	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d8…e081backed Yes	1c	4,147$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f8e…3373backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	14c	1,400$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.82	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	4c	1,400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.4	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,400$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.17	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,243$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.33	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes	3c	1,146$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.47	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	6c	1,000$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	4c	999.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	892.55$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a71…7ad6backed Yes	2c	891.78$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	9c	816.92$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.88	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	10c	793.32$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.18	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	4c	766.48$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.33	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b9…824cbacked Yes	3c	745.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	5c	701.53$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	9c	681.42$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	10c	679.76$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.62	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49f7…c77fbacked Yes	2c	650.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	11c	600$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	514.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	4c	481.24$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes	3c	475.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes	2c	451.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	4c	438.47$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c53…31a4backed Yes	5c	431.49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.44	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes	10c	414.25$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	179	20.7%37 W · 142 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	7c	400.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	8c	214$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes	6c	188.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	279	20.4%57 W · 222 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes	9c	180.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a7…028dbacked Yes	8c	177.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	159$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddb4…3a48backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-67%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event